JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 5, 7:40 AM EDT
311
FXUS63 KJKL 051140 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
740 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of dense valley fog will clear out over the next hour or
so.
- Hot temperatures and humidity will peak on Tuesday and Wednesday,
with afternoon heat indices near 100 degrees in some locations.
- Still quite a bit of uncertainty as to how Hurricane Debby will
impact eastern Kentucky late in the forecast period.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 725 AM EDT MON AUG 5 2024
No significant changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of
the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids as the fog is on
track to clear out shortly. These minor adjustments have been
sent to the NDFD and web servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 420 AM EDT MON AUG 5 2024
07Z sfc analysis shows high pressure in place over eastern
Kentucky. This is keeping the winds light to calm and skies clear.
With still damp ground for much of the area this has again
encouraged the development of valley fog - locally dense. An SPS
is in effect for this concern through 8 am. Otherwise, A small
radiational cooling temperature spread exists early this morning
with readings varying from the mid 60s in the deeper valleys to
the low 70s on the ridges. Meanwhile, dewpoints are similar - from
the middle to upper 60s.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, continue to be
in very god agreement aloft through the the short term portion of
the forecast. They all depict broad ridging at 5h moving over this
part of Kentucky extending east from the dome over the Southern
Rockies and High Plains. This will likely continue to serve as a
buffer to keep the core of Hurricane Debbie from working too far
into the region, at least in the short term. It will also keep the
mid level flow benign and without much in the way of impulses
crossing near eastern Kentucky. Given the minimal model spread
through Tuesday have gone with the NBM as the starting point for
the forecast grids with little in the way of adjustment needed.
Sensible weather features plenty of sunshine (once the fog clears)
today and tomorrow thanks to high pressure in place. This will
allow for hot temperatures by afternoon, but humidity under
control to keep the heat index from getting too high. Even so, the
values will peak near 100 degrees in a few places on Tuesday
afternoon. At night, we can expect a small ridge to valley
temperature split along with more in the way of valley fog
development - locally dense.
The main changes to the NBM starting point consisted of terrain
based adjustments to temperatures from the NBM early this morning
and again tonight. PoPs were kept similar to the NBM - in the
single digits through the period.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT MON AUG 5 2024
We begin the period with a mid-level wave pushing southeast across
parts of the Ohio Valley. This would bring a small chance (20
percent or less) of showers Tuesday night into parts of Wednesday.
The NBM seems to be coming in fairly dry, but could see if trends
continue to need to increase rain chances across parts of the
Bluegrass especially. This could also lead to a little more cloud
cover than produced by the NBM and this could affect afternoon highs
if it is more active rain shower wise. Right now we are looking at
generally upper 80s to lower 90s for afternoon highs on Wednesday.
By Thursday, we will see overall drier weather and afternoon highs
in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Then all eyes turn towards what will come of the remnants of
currently Hurricane Debby. There remains a fair amount of
uncertainty on the track of this system, as it gets lost in the lack
of better steering flow. Right now it is forecast to track across
parts of the Carolinas through the end of thr week. Some GEFS and
the deterministic GFS remains some of the outliers in terms of how
this storm effects eastern Kentucky and are certainly the wetter
solutions for the area when looking at the range of potential
outcomes from the cluster analysis. The GEFS showing nearly 40
percent chance of rainfall totals of more than a half an inch
versus the other ensemble systems showing less than 15 percent
chance. The low however stays more confined to the Gulf Coast as
it retrogrades back west toward the Florida Panhandle. That said,
the NBM seems to be more biased toward the EPS and GEPS solutions
for this system which would take it northward along the Atlantic
coast. It would also lead to perhaps a quarter inch of rainfall
at most for the area. Given this NBM is giving less cloud cover
and precipitation which would lead to warmer weather extending
into Thursday and Friday, with afternoon highs climbing into the
upper 80s to lower 90s. By the weekend, we will see much cooler
weather arrive, as low level flow continues to become more
northerly. This will usher in drier air, as PWATs drop to near 1
inch. The afternoon highs will be near normal in the low to mid
80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT MON AUG 5 2024
Morning fog will clear out over the next hour or so returning
conditions to VFR through the forecast area. The HRRR-Smoke model
does depict a concentration of distant wildfire smoke moving over
the Ohio River Valley today, especially near the KSYM TAF site,
which may cause some reductions to visibility due to haze during
the afternoon and early evening hours - but this was left out of
the terminal forecast, for now. Mainly valley fog should spare
most of the TAF sites tonight. Winds will be light and variable
through the period as high pressure dominates.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 5, 7:40 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202408051140-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL-AAA)
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