ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 4, 1:49 AM EDT
126
FXUS61 KILN 040549
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
149 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Fog will develop overnight. A few sprinkles will be possible on
Sunday. High pressure and dry conditions will be in place
Sunday night into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The last of the shower activity is across south central
portions of the region south of the Ohio River. With clearing
skies and light winds already starting to see fog development.
Increased fog wording in the forecast and expanded the special
weather statement for fog overnight. Per coordination, held off
on a dense fog advisory at this time, however one will likely be
needed across at least a portion of the region overnight. Lows
will generally be in the 60s overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Weak high pressure will settle into the area during the day on
Sunday before beginning to shift east Sunday night. This will
lead to dry conditions with highs in the 85 to 90 degree range.
Lows Sunday night will be in the mid to upper 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Synoptically, at the start of the work week, a robust upper
level trough will be centered just east of the Hudson Bay and
continues to slowly work its way east. Meanwhile, an area of
ridging over southwest CONUS expands northwest, retrograding
slightly. Finally, remnants of Tropical Depression 4 will be
moving over Florida, somewhat detached from the larger flow
regime.
Down near the surface, the boundary associated with the upper
level trough remains stretched out across the northern Great
lakes, while our CWA is mostly influenced by an area of weak
high pressure. This results in mostly clear skies with calm
conditions. A shortwave off to our northwest may help promote
some subtle WAA and the area remains rather muggy. Tds will
reach the low 70s Monday, with "feels- like" temps in the 90s
area wide, with splotchy patches in the upper 90s around our
metro areas. Overnight lows fall into the low 70s.
Tuesday, the shortwave moves into the region, dragging a weak
cold front along with it. Overall forcing isn't robust, but we
may see some scattered showers/ storms, particularly with PM
diurnal heating. Stuck with the blend and kept chance PoPs in.
Thanks to this boundary, we will see a bit of a temp gradient
across the CWA... right now, went with low 80s in the north/ 90s
in the south (this will change depending on timing/placement of
boundary/ clouds/ rain).
The system continues its track through the area Tuesday night
into Wednesday; kept slight PoPs in and, again, have our area
eating a temp gradient. After this system passes, the area
should remain dry and Wednesday/ Thursday may provide a slight
relief to the heat. Tds slowly fall and temperatures moderate a
bit closer to climatological normals (mid 80s). However,
confidence during this period is low, given that extended
guidance gets a bit muddled, largely thanks to the uncertainty
with the track and influence of TD4.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through sunrise, weak high pressure at the surface and aloft
will provide for light to calm winds and mostly clear skies.
However, with elevated dewpoints and residual moisture from
yesterday's rainfall, the potential for fog development exists.
Thus, patchy to areas of fog, which could be dense in spots,
are forecast. Depending on the airport, conditions will vary,
with KILN, KLUK, and KLCK having the lowest conditions
(IFR/LIFR/VLIFR).
From 12Z to 14Z, diurnal heating will allow the shallow fog to
dissipate.
For the remainder of the day, weak high pressure will remain
across the region. FEW-SCT diurnal VFR cumulus clouds will
develop between 15Z and 16Z. Winds will vary from west to
northwest around 5 knots.
For tonight, diurnal cumulus will dissipate near or after
sunset, leaving some FEW-SCT high level cirrus clouds. Winds
will generally be light southerly to calm as weak high pressure
begins to shift east.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Tuesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Hickman
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 4, 1:49 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202408040549-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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