LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 1, 6:28 PM CDT ...NEW AVIATION...
263
FXUS64 KLIX 012328 AAA
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
628 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024
...NEW AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024
The big story in the short term is the heat. Several locations
reached heat indices of 110 deg F or higher today, although slightly
increased cloud cover has stopped these temperatures from warming
much higher. Stout ridging at both the surface and upper-levels is
to blame here. Only very scattered shower activity has been seen
along the coast. Expect one change for the forecast tomorrow.
Temperatures, both actual and apparent, are expected to be slightly
hotter tomorrow according to CAM guidance. Cannot rule out that
actual air temperatures reach 100 degrees in a few spots and heat
indices approach 113 deg F or greater. Therefore, the Heat Advisory
has been upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning for parishes
surrounding Lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas, as well as metro
Baton Rouge and the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Overnight lows will be
in the upper 70s to near 80 deg F.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024
We will remain hot through the weekend into next week. However, we
will also see a slight increase in POPs as a surface front comes
southward and an upper-level trough digs southward, though generally
too far away to support widespread convection. How far south this
front moves will be important for how much low-level lift we get,
but it is expected to be weak and should undergo frontolysis over or
just north of us by Sunday/Monday. The ridging in place in the mid
and upper-levels will also induce broad-scale sinking motions that
should keep any storms that do form weak and short-lived. The
increased cloud cover as a result of the increased convective
coverage would normally keep temperatures down, though the
compressional heating ahead of the surface front will cancel this
out. And with the ridging pattern staying in place, do not expect a
significant cool down during this time frame.
As one would expect when the calendar turns to August, our focus
also shifts to the tropics. I will preface this by saying it is too
soon to determine if there will be any impacts here from this
disturbance and it is not an immediate threat to the central Gulf
Coast. A tropical wave, dubbed Invest 97L, is located near
Hispaniola and producing disorganized convection along and east of
the wave axis. The expectation is for 97L to struggle to organize
through the next 36 hours while its wave axis is located over the
Greater Antilles. But when it emerges off of Cuba and reaches the
eastern Gulf by Saturday, conditions will be more favorable for
development and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form
in the eastern Gulf this weekend or early next week. NHC has
raised the chances of tropical cyclogenesis to 70% in the next 7
days. The latest model guidance is generally in good agreement
that the disturbance will stay near or just west of the Florida
peninsula as it lifts northward through the weekend. The culprit?
A combination of 97L rounding the western periphery of the Bermuda
High and also feeling the influence of the previously mentioned
trough digging into the eastern CONUS.
Early next week is where questions regarding track really start
to arise due to weak steering flow. Once the steering flow
weakens, the model solutions are generally bifurcated into two
general scenarios - continued northeastward movement toward the
Carolinas, or meandering around the southeastern CONUS and
potentially back into the eastern Gulf. The bottom line is that
there is a lot of uncertainty at this time, and there will likely
continue to be significant uncertainty in the far extended
forecast unless/until the system develops a more well-defined
center of circulation. Long story short, just keep an eye on it.
If nothing else, it's a reminder that hurricane season is ramping
up, and it's always a good idea to be prepared.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024
VFR conditions will continue through the cycle with generally
light and variable winds. That said, again cannot completely rule
out a rogue shower or storm on Friday afternoon, but overall the
coverage is very isolated and will not mention in this package.
(Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024
Benign marine conditions expected for the next few days with
moderate (10-15kts) winds and southerly flow expected. Winds will
likely shift northeasterly early next week. Some higher winds and
seas are possible early next week which could bring headlines, but
there is still a lot of model uncertainty in the forecast.
Additionally, there is a 70% chance of tropical development in
the Southeast Gulf over the next 7 days, which will also be really
important to keep monitoring for all mariners as changes occur.
MSW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 75 97 76 95 / 0 10 20 30
BTR 79 100 81 99 / 0 10 10 40
ASD 79 99 80 97 / 0 20 10 50
MSY 80 97 81 96 / 0 20 10 50
GPT 80 97 80 95 / 10 20 20 50
PQL 79 101 79 99 / 10 20 20 50
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ034>037-039-
046-047-056-059-065>071.
Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ048-
057-058-060-064-076>090.
GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for MSZ068>071-077-
083>085.
Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for
MSZ086>088.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...MSW
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 1, 6:28 PM CDT ...NEW AVIATION... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202408012328-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX-AAA)
---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!