MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 26, 5:05 AM CDT ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
454
FXUS64 KMOB 261005
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
505 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 505 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
There is finally a pattern change on the horizon. However, daily
rain chances will remain high. The upper trough extending from
southeast Canada to the southern Plains will be split in two as an
upper ridge over the northern Plains slips eastward over the Great
Lakes region and merges with the upper high over the northeast Gulf.
This will form an omega block pattern over the eastern US, with one
upper trough extending down the Eastern Seaboard and the other upper
trough over the central and southern Plains. At the surface, the
weak high pressure across the region will be replaced by a weak
trough slipping southwestward from the Carolinas to the Deep South.
A typical diurnal convective setup will persist into the weekend an
beyond, but with precipitable water values (PWATs) remaining around
2.2", scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop
this afternoon, with the highest coverage occurring south of US
Highway 84. This precipitation will dissipate by midnight, but a few
showers should linger along the coast after midnight into Saturday
morning. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
area-wide Saturday afternoon. A few of the stronger storms have the
potential of creating gusty surface winds up the 40 mph both days.
However the main concern will be the risk of water issues as the
storms have the potential of being efficient rainers, and will need
to be monitored.
High temperatures both days will remain near normal, ranging from 89
to 94 degrees, with heat indices in the upper 90s to as high as 105
degrees. Low temperatures tonight will be slightly above normal, and
range from 71 to 74 degrees inland areas, and from 75 to 79 degrees
along the coast. A LOW rip current risk is expected to continue for
all beaches through the near term. /22
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 505 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
Upper level ridging will remain in place over the local area
through the weekend as a pronounced omega block pattern lingers
up in the upper levels. Deep layer moisture will be in place
across the the area despite the upper ridging with PWAT values
hovering around 2 inches. Another round of scattered to numerous
diurnally driven showers and storms will likely begin developing
Sunday morning along the coast and offshore Gulf waters before
spreading inland during the afternoon. As we head into early next
week, the overall upper level pattern will begin to change with
the upper ridging gradually retrograding westward and becoming
centered over south central and southwestern portions of the US.
At the same time, a large upper trough will begin to take hold
over the eastern US which will place the local area within a
northwesterly flow pattern aloft through the middle of next week.
This northwesterly flow will likely bring some slightly drier air
into portions of the area by next week which could help to reduce
PoPs slightly. We'll still be looking at daily chances for showers
and storms though with convection following a typical summer time
pattern. A few stronger storms cannot be ruled out during the
period with gusty winds and frequent lightning being the main
concerns.
Temperatures will gradually rise through the period with highs on
Sunday topping out in the upper 80s and lower 90s. By early to
middle next week, high temperatures will be back in the lower and
middle 90s. Dew points will also trend higher which will result
in hot and muggy conditions through the period. Heat index values
may begin to approach advisory thresholds by early next week. /14
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 505 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
Locally higher winds and seas will remain a possibility near
occasional scattered to numerous thunderstorms into early next
week, and conditions will remain favorable for the development of
waterspouts over the next few days. Otherwise, a light
northeasterly wind this morning will become light southeasterly to
southerly in the afternoon through the weekend, then shifting
southwesterly on Monday. /22
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 90 73 89 75 90 75 91 75 / 70 40 70 20 70 30 70 30
Pensacola 90 76 89 77 90 77 90 76 / 60 30 70 40 70 40 70 40
Destin 90 79 90 79 90 79 89 79 / 50 30 60 40 70 50 70 40
Evergreen 91 72 91 73 90 73 90 72 / 40 30 70 20 70 30 70 30
Waynesboro 90 71 91 71 92 73 92 73 / 50 50 70 20 70 20 60 20
Camden 89 72 91 72 90 72 89 72 / 20 10 70 30 70 30 70 20
Crestview 93 73 92 73 91 74 90 73 / 60 30 70 30 70 40 70 30
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source: MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 26, 5:05 AM CDT ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202407261005-KMOB-FXUS64-AFDMOB)
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