LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 5:27 PM CST ...New AVIATION...
479
FXUS64 KLIX 062327
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
527 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 525 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026
- Cooler and much drier conditions are expected this weekend and
into early next week with the passage of a stronger cold front.
- Drier air and ongoing drought conditions will elevate the fire
weather risk Sunday through Tuesday. Those under burn bans
should avoid burning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026
More of the same today with just high cirrus to note in our skies.
The stationary front parked offshore will be reinforced by a
secondary cold front that will push through tonight into Saturday
morning which will increase northerly winds and invite deeper-
layer dry air into the area. The colder air mass will lag behind
the front as the front will be starting to lose its coherence, but
the front's presence will be most obvious by Sunday morning with
low temperatures in the low to mid 40s across the northern half of
the CWA, and low to mid 50s across coastal southeast LA. This will
be the coldest temperatures we've seen in these areas in a couple
of weeks.
The delivery of drier air to the air in conjunction with lingering
severe drought conditions especially along and west of I-55 will
present an elevated fire weather risk by Sunday. Fortunately,
winds will be weakening by Sunday and Monday when minimum RH
values will be at their lowest. This will mean conditions should
remain below critical thresholds and will not warrant red flag
warnings at this time. Even still, those living in areas with burn
bans should avoid burning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026
A shortwave trough following the subtropical jet stream is
currently situated over the southwest CONUS and is expected to
dig through northern Mexico and into Texas over this weekend. The
lift associated and mid-level moisture transported with this
trough will increase cloud coverage over the area into early next
week. However, due to the lingering drier low-levels and lack of
low-level moisture return ahead of this mainly mid-upper level
system will mean there will be very little moisture and
instability for this system to work with. PoPs will be less than
10% and mainly focused along the coast as a result.
Looking later into next week, global model ensemble guidance
continues to be in reasonable agreement that longwave eastern
CONUS trough will be favored. This type of pattern will open us up
to more cold front passages as we head into next weekend. However,
it's not clear just yet how strong these fronts will be and how
much it could cool us down.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026
VFR through the forecast period with only a few mid and high
clouds at most. A bit of an increase in northerly winds with
frontal passage tomorrow morning, but no major impacts to
operations expected.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1126 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026
Winds are generally light and northerly and will remain that way
until a reinforcing cold front moves through later today where
offshore winds will become a little stronger, around 10 to 15 knots.
Northeast winds will be strongest over the weekend with gusts
upwards of 20 knots before gradually decreasing into next week as
the area remains under the southeast flank of surface high pressure.
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...TJS
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 5:27 PM CST ...New AVIATION... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202611062327-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
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