IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 10, 2:26 AM EST
963
FXUS63 KIWX 100726
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
226 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Sunshine today with highs into the low-mid 60s.
- A low pressure system moves through Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night with a period of rain.
- Lake effect showers impact areas mainly west of US-31 in nw IN
and far sw MI Thursday through Friday night. Snow may mix in
by late Thursday night into Friday morning.
- Below normal temperatures Thursday through this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026
Another pleasant and mild day today despite a weak, washed out,
frontal passage as another shortwave bypasses well north through the
northern and eastern Great Lakes. This flattened, high latitude,
flow then gives way to a full-latitude longwave trough over the
Eastern CONUS by the second half of this week. This transition will
drive a compact shortwave southeast through the area Wednesday
afternoon-evening. The associated frontal wave and pacific moisture
origins will bring chances (50-80%) for a period of rain during this
time, with a few heavier convective elements possible south of US-30
near the sfc low track and steeper mid level lapse rates.
Colder air wraps in behind this low Thursday into Friday as several
more shortwave impulses drop through the region in deep northerly
flow. A secondary trough and steepening lapse rates with the cold
pool will keep chances for scattered rain showers in the forecast
area-wide into Thursday. This chilly northerly flow (850 mb temps
fall to near -5C) brings about a full transition to lake effect rain
otherwise Thursday through Friday night. Favorable long lake
fetch/convergence and thermal parameters will allow for more
organized lake effect banding to settle into our northerly flow lake
belts at times, mainly west of US-31 in far nw IN (especially
LaPorte/Starke counties Thursday night-Friday). Wet-bulb zero
heights may collapse to less than 1 kft later Thursday night into
Friday morning just inland from the lake. The NBM and ensemble
guidance hint at the potential for slushy snow accums here (mainly
LaPorte/Starke Ct). Confidence is low given lingering uncertainties
regarding low level flow trajectories, warm lake and marginally cold
nature to the incoming air mass.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1223 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds veering
from southwesterly to more westerly after 10z Tue and remain
light, less than 10 knots.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Andersen
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 10, 2:26 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202611100726-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
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