JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 10, 6:38 AM EST
632
FXUS63 KJKL 101138
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
638 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal high temperatures and seasonably chilly low
temperatures for valley locations continue into mid-week.
- Rain chances return on Wednesday evening and linger into Friday
as a developing weather system crosses the area and then
strengthens to our east.
- The first snowflakes of the season could fall on Friday as much
colder air moves into eastern Kentucky on the back side of that
system.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2026
07Z sfc analysis shows a large area of high pressure still in
place covering Kentucky and much of the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. This high remains in firm control of our weather early
this morning giving us another night of cloud-free skies, light
winds, and still fairly dry dewpoints - near ideal conditions for
radiational cooling. As a result, a moderate ridge to valley
temperature split has developed along with some hints of fog
following the rivers - likely to become locally dense before
dawn. Currently, temperatures are down in the mid 30s in a few of
the valleys while many of the ridges have only slowly fallen into
the mid and upper 40s. Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally in the
mid 30s.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are still in
quite good agreement aloft during the short term portion of the
forecast. They all continue to depict broad troughing off to the
northeast of the area. This helps to maintain a steady state of
northwest mid level flow through Kentucky at modest speed with
most impulses staying well off to the northeast of the JKL
forecast area leaving sensible weather rather benign. This starts
to change on Wednesday as a potent shortwave trough dives this
way from the Upper Midwest. Look for falling 5h heights with this
along with an uptick in energy washing over eastern Kentucky
after 00Z Thursday. Given the still small model spread, most of
the forecast grids again came from unadjusted NBM data this
morning. However, did enhance the terrain distinctions once again
for tonight on account of the dry air in place and nearby sfc high
while incorporating the latest COOP MOS guidance to reflect our
sheltered valleys. Did also drop afternoon dewpoints and RH from
the NBM numbers today and a little on Wednesday considering the
expectation for deeper mixing into some drier air aloft.
Sensible weather will feature a persistent forecast of seasonally
mild afternoons with plenty of sunshine - especially today.
Tonight, the radiational cooling will set the stage for one more
period of rather large ridge to valley temperature differences.
Again, there may be narrow areas of dense river valley fog forming
late at night then dissipating shortly after dawn. Frost and
freeze conditions will affect the area again this morning and some
more frost tonight, but as the growing season has ended these will
not be reflected in the grids or forecast products until next
spring.
The main changes to the NBM starting point were to adjust hourly
temperatures tonight for those enhanced terrain effects given the
still kind of dry air and nearby sfc high. Did also tweak
dewpoints and RH lower for this afternoon and a touch on Wednesday
afternoon due to the expectations of deeper mixing into the drier
air located just off the sfc.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 305 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2026
The extended period opens Wednesday night with a significant pattern
shift. A northern-stream shortwave diving out of the Upper Midwest
into the Ohio Valley will carve out a deep, anomalous longwave
trough over the eastern third of the CONUS by Thursday. An attendant
cold front will sweep across the Commonwealth late Wednesday night
into early Thursday morning, bringing increasing cloud cover and
scattered to widespread rain.
Temperatures Thursday will likely follow a non-diurnal curve.
With the cold front passing through during the morning hours,
daytime highs may be achieved around or shortly after daybreak,
followed by falling or steady temperatures through the afternoon
under moderate cold air advection. While high-resolution guidance
has trended slightly warmer ahead of the boundary, opted to stick
with the NBM blend, yielding low 50s across the Bluegrass and
upper 50s in the Big Sandy areas. As the trough deepens and
strengthens overhead, temperatures will continue to drop, with
Thursday night lows in the low to mid-30s.
The core of the upper trough will pivot just north of the region
heading into Friday, pushing 500 mb heights below the 5th
climatological percentile and ushering in a brisk Canadian air mass
on breezy northwest winds. Highs Friday and Saturday will struggle
to climb out of the 40s, with overnight lows in the mid to upper
20s. Lingering post-frontal and upslope showers could mix with or
transition to the first flurries of the season across the higher
terrain of southeast Kentucky Thursday night into Friday, and again
Friday night.
Upstream from this longwave trough, a high-amplitude ridge will
build across the region, ushering in surface high pressure Sunday
through Tuesday. Temperatures will gradually recover each day under
dry weather and fair skies. Local 500 mb heights will rebound from
below the 5th percentile on Friday to near the 80th percentile by
Tuesday evening. Temperatures will gradually warm from the low 50s
on Sunday to the upper 50s and low 60s by Tuesday, while nighttime
lows remain at or slightly below freezing.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 638 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2026
A ridge of sfc high pressure will remain in place across the area
through the period resulting in mainly VFR conditions. Valley fog
could affect locations along the larger creeks, rivers, and
lakes during the pre-dawn hours, with MVFR to localized IFR, or
worse, conditions. This is not expected to affect any of the TAF
sites. Winds will be less than 10 kts through the period - generally
out of the southwest and west.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 10, 6:38 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202611101138-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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