IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 8, 12:45 AM EST
471
FXUS63 KIWX 080545
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1245 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A slow warming trend commences Sunday through Tuesday, with highs
in the 60s by Tuesday.
- Cooler temperatures return for the second half of next week.
- Dry through the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026
Lake effect clouds amid cyclonic flow departing the eastern Great
Lakes are showing some signs of breaking up. Rising heights and a
subtle backing of the low-level flow should slowly chip away
the cloud deck for at least a couple peeks of sun late this
afternoon. Decreasing clouds set us up for, in the context of
this mild fall, a very cold night. Lows will tumble toward freezing
(away from the lake) as high pressure settles over Illinois.
Light wind to start the evening may set the stage for frost, but
then surface wind increases prior to daybreak in response to a
low pressure streaking across Ontario. We're now past the
climatological growing season; therefore, no frost/freeze
headlines.
Breezy but dry on Sunday as the aformentioned low passes to our
north. Forecast soundings show strong flow in the low-levels but poor
mixing to the surface. This keeps wind gusts in check,
generally from the west at 25 to 30 mph. Cool northwest flow
behind this dry frontal passage restarts lake effect clouds
which persist into Monday morning.
Broad northwest flow through the Great Lakes offers times of breezy
conditions for the week ahead, while a building ridge over the
Central US results in a slight warming trend through Wednesday
afternoon. Given limited moisture transport, little to no rain is in
the forecast. Our best chance for any rainfall is not until late
Wednesday and Thursday when a fairly deep trough approaches.
Even so, this may be a glancing blow as low pressure from the
Mississippi Valley favors rain toward the Ohio Valley, shunted
south by an incoming Great Lakes trough. This trough sets up
lake effect precipitation, primarily west of our area.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1234 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026
VFR conditions expected through the remainder of this TAF
period. A few lower clouds possible and a cold front will brush
our northern parts of the area overnight that could increase
lower clouds, but drier air in place should keep chances
minimized of that development so left that out of the TAFs at
this time. Westerly to southwesterly winds after 14-15z will
become gusty with gusts up to around 25 kts.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Monday for LMZ043.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 AM EST
Monday for LMZ046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Andersen
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 8, 12:45 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202611080545-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
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