ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 6:40 AM EST
481
FXUS61 KILN 071140
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
640 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) An upper level low will track from the Great Lakes into New
England today. This will offer cooler temperatures, including
freezing temperatures overnight tonight.
2) Temperatures will make a return to above normal for high
temperatures for the first half of next week, returning to near
normal for the second half. A chance of rain Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
An upper level low will track east through the Great Lakes into New
England today. This will place the Ohio Valley in a northwest flow
pattern. Surface high pressure builds over MO today and tonight.
Considerable cloud cover is expected in the cold advection, along
with a decent nw wind 10-15 mph. This is particularly true in central
OH closer to the cold pool.
Decreasing winds combined with clear skies will lead to cool
overnight temperatures. Expect lows to be in the upper 20s to low
30s.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
High pressure will build to the south of the Ohio Valley and extend a
ridge into the western Appalachians, bringing a southwest flow to the
region. As a result, a dry forecast is expected through mid week
with highs moderating to a few degrees on either side of 60 Monday
and Wednesday, peaking in the mid-upper 60s Tuesday.
The high will shift ewd and a cold front will cross the region later
Wednesday, ushering in high temperatures in the lower 50s for
Thursday, upper 40s Friday, and near 50 on Saturday.
In the wake of the cold front, there is a lifting mechanism with a
strong low pressure lobe rotating around a strong swd diving low in
the Midwest. This initial low and subsequent broad low pressure
center will bring a chance of rain to the region, primarily Thursday
but possibly starting Wed night in the srn and sern CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Today will see cloudy skies with nw wind around 10kt bringing in
colder air aloft. With the cold air, stratocu cloud deck around 3kft
will undulate at times to be a few hundred feet lower or higher,
crossing that MVFR/VFR threshold.
Given the proximity of the terminals to the coldest air, skies will
clear in the late day at CVG/LUK, by sunset at DAY/ILN, and after
sunset at CMH/LCK. Wind will eventually go light from the west as a
ridge of high pressure extends ewd into the area from a strong high
pressure center in MO.
Tomorrow morning will see the westerly winds pick up to about
10-12kt fairly early at CVG.
OUTLOOK...Significant weather is not expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for OHZ073-077>082-088.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Sunday for OHZ073-
077>082-088.
KY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for KYZ089>100.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Sunday for
KYZ089>100.
IN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for INZ073>075-080.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Sunday for
INZ073>075-080.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Franks
AVIATION...Franks
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 6:40 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202611071140-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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