CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 11:44 PM EST
731
FXUS61 KCLE 080444
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1144 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant forecast changes were made with this update.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cooler with periods of lake effect showers through the weekend.
2) Turning milder early this week with unsettled weather
returning mid to late week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Upper level low will continue to push east of the forecast area as a
surface ridge builds overhead from the west tonight. Currently, lake
effect rain showers persist across portions of Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania. Anticipate for shower coverage to diminish
from west to east with the arrival of the surface ridge tonight.
There will be a window of dry weather and clearing with the surface
ridge before another upper level trough clips the northeastern
portions of the forecast area on Sunday night. Lake effect rain
showers will redevelop across the traditional Snowbelt region Sunday
night into Monday before diminishing through the day on Monday.
Northwest winds this afternoon and evening will continue to
occasionally gust to 20-25 MPH before the ridge enters from the
west. The pressure gradient tightens as the trough approaches the
region which will lead to westerly wind gusts increasing to 25-30
MPH by Sunday.
Remaining cooler this weekend with low temperatures tonight falling
to the upper 20s to lower 30s under a mainly clear sky. High
temperatures on Sunday warm into the mid to upper 50s before lows
Sunday night dip into the mid to upper 30s.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
The first half of the week looks mainly dry and mild as surface
high pressure remains across the Ohio Valley. Another upper
trough will dig south into the region later in the week.
However, current medium range models have some differences in
exact timing. For now, expect for unsettled weather to return at
some point later in the week with precipitation chances
increasing Thursday onward. The upper trough will also introduce
a cold airmass with 850mb temperatures of -5 to -10C, depending
on what model you look at, which may usher in our first snow or
rain/snow mix of the season.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Any lingering MVFR ceilings in lake effect stratus will
gradually clear out overnight. From there, VFR is expected
through Sunday before ceilings lower across portions of NE OH/NW
PA after 00Z Monday. A few showers are possible at KERI after
00Z Monday, although the better chance of showers will likely
hold off until after the TAF period. Conditions may very briefly
drop to MVFR in showers and lower ceilings at KERI towards 06Z,
but confidence is too low to include non-VFR conditions in the
TAF at this point.
Winds will be out of the west/southwest at 5 to 10 knots
overnight. By late Sunday morning, southwest winds will increase
to 10 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 to 30 knots with similar flow
continuing through early evening. By 00Z Monday, winds will be
more westerly with sustained winds between 10 and 15 knots and
gusts to 20 to 25 knots. Winds may remain elevated along the
immediate shore of Lake Erie through the end of the TAF period.
Outlook...Rain showers with potential for
non-VFR are likely across far Northeast OH and Northwest PA late
Sunday night into Monday. Non-VFR is possible areawide Wednesday
night through Thursday with rain showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Elevated northwest winds 15-25 knots with wave heights 3 to 6 feet
continue across the central and eastern basins through this evening.
As a surface ridge builds over the lake from the west winds turn
westerly to southwesterly while remaining elevated 15-20 knots which
will keep wave heights 3-5 feet. Surface pressure gradient increases
on Sunday leading to southwesterly winds increasing to 20-30 knots
by Sunday afternoon. Wave heights will subsequently build to 5-8
feet across the nearshore waters and 8-10 feet in the open waters of
the central and eastern basins. A cold front swings south across the
lake Sunday night into Monday leading to winds returning
northwesterly at 20-25 knots. High pressure regains control Monday
with wind speeds decreasing to 10-20 knots and wave heights
subsiding to 2 feet or less by Monday night. Small Craft
Advisories have been extended in Monday east of the Islands.
There will likely be a brief window Monday night into Tuesday
with southwesterly winds 10-15 knots before winds increase to
20-25 knots and waves build to 3-6 feet. Another set of Small
Craft Advisories may be needed for the central and eastern
basins.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday for LEZ142-
143.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for LEZ144-145.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Monday for LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...15
MARINE...13
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 11:44 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202611080444-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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