PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 6:51 AM EST
391
FXUS61 KPBZ 071151
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
651 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Dropped the Friday portion of the showers. Focus on Saturday
precip along with the potential of a flake of snow.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers Saturday.
2) Gusty wind on Sunday.
3) Temperatures remain near normal with mostly dry weather through
early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A low pressure center will drop south into the forecast area
through dawn and into the coming day. This will also continue
to usher colder air into the region with high temperatures
struggling to get out of the 40s. Northwest flow will allow for
the lake to assist with the precip with enhanced rain showers.
The morning may feature a flake of snow or two in Forest County
with the coldest temperatures there. The stronger gradient will
hold off till Sunday but the advection through the day will
still allow for winds to gust up to 30 knots in some cases. Some
showers have the potential to produce heavier amounts as the
NBM does give a 40% chance of exceeding 0.50".
KEY MESSAGE 2...
The pressure gradient will tighten up on Sunday on the periphery of
developing low pressure off to our east. Low level flow in the 925-
850 mb layer strengthens on the back side of it as well nearing 50
knots over the ridges. Dependent on inversion height, exact
direction, and potential mixing, Sunday could be gusty across the
area and especially in the WV ridges. Probability of advisory
criteria gusts (>46 mph) reaches up to 70% in Eastern Tucker
County on Sunday. It may be a case that just the far eastern tip
of the county gets especially gusty as the prevailing flow in
the lower levels is westerly and thus favors downsloping to the
east of our area. Will continue to monitor over the next 24-36
hours. In the lowlands, peak gusts being >30 mph are a decent
bet with probability ranging from 40-80%.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
The early weekend trough departs on Sunday and surface high
pressure establishes across the Ohio Valley returning mostly
dry weather into next week with near normal temperatures. Latest
12 hour ensemble trends have turned a bit more in favor of the
solution dominated by a subset of GEFS and Euro ensemble
members in which the surface high is slower to build, and a
slightly more amplified shortwave trough slides through early on
Monday. This would return some scattered showers to the
northern part of our area and NBM PoPs have nudged up in this
direction. Regardless, ensembles converge to better agreement
that the high does become our dominant influence with dry
weather on Tuesday. The pattern then becomes very deviant into
the second half of the week as another trough tries to dig out
of the Great Lakes and quickly amplify over the eastern half of
the country. How deep it is and when it arrives remain unknown,
but one would expect that a more unsettled pattern returns with
surface low development somewhere downstream. That may be local
or well off into the Atlantic at this point. Once we get a
better idea of how deep and how progressive the trough will be,
we'll be able to start to pin down the potential location and
track of a surface low.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A upper low and affiliated low moisture will continue to linger
across the region today, bringing mostly MVFR cigs (>75%). There
is a chance that FKL/DUJ/BVI may dip into IFR within any rain
showers that may occur, but at this point, this is only 25% to
50% likely and only noted at prevailing for FKL.
During peak heating, there also may be a few showers that pop up
at other ports, with most guidance forecasting this to occur
sometime between 16Z and 23Z, it at all. Winds may gust through
the day up to 20kts to 30kts with the low passage, primarily out
of the west/northwest.
Overnight, the low departure and stabilization will lead to some
cig improvements and calming winds, but conditions may remain
low VFR to high MVFR for most through Sunday morning. Lower MVFR
cigs are more likely at FKL/DUJ.
Outlook...
VFR conditions are expected across the region Sunday afternoon
with advancing warm air from the west. A passing cold front late
Sunday into Monday brings a 60% chance of MVFR with some rain
potential.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MLB/Shallenberger
AVIATION...Milcarek
Source: PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 7, 6:51 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202611071151-KPBZ-FXUS61-AFDPBZ)
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