JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 4:47 PM EST
341
FXUS63 KJKL 062147
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
447 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Colder and drier air will arrive as we move into the weekend,
and persist well into next week.
- Frost is expected this weekend, with freezing temperatures also
possible. The coldest conditions will be in the valleys early in
the mornings on Sunday and Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 439 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2026
Another cold front moved into the forecast area from the
northwest today, but it lost definition along the way. The end
result has been continued cold air advection with steepening low
level lapse rates, which is supporting the extensive low clouds
which have developed (along with a bit of drizzle or sprinkles).
The front and the cold air advection is supported by a potent
upper low moving slowly southeast over the Great Lakes.
The initial band of clouds with the cold air advection is breaking
up over southern IN and southern OH. Models are bringing this
clearing southeast into KY tonight, but the question remains as to
what reality brings. Low level temperature advection is expected
to go near neutral or slightly warm by morning with light
anticyclonic flow returning, which would support decreasing
clouds, even though we tend to be notoriously slow to clear behind
cold fronts in the cold season. Based on forecast clearing and the
air mass which is arriving, the frost advisory was expanded
slightly southeastward for late tonight/Saturday morning.
The upper low will head east and begin to depart on Saturday and
Saturday night, as surface high pressure moves toward us from the
west. This will bring a return of sunshine followed by a mainly
clear night. This will set us up for a colder night with frost a
good bet for most places, and possibly freezing temperatures.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 430 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2026
(An updated long term discussion will be sent shortly.)
The extended period opens Saturday evening with an upper-level low
located over southern Ontario and the Lower Great Lakes. Broad
cyclonic flow around the trough will direct a colder, drier airmass
into Kentucky from the northwest as surface high pressure builds in
from the west. Calm to light winds under mostly clear skies would
typically favor frost formation if temperatures drop sufficiently.
However, deterministic and ensemble guidance (including the RRFS,
REFS, GFS, and ECMWF) remain noticeably milder than the NBM. The NBM
appears to be weighting recent two-week observations where dry air
and strong radiational decoupling produced colder valley lows. Given
persistent CAA and lingering boundary layer mixing under
northwesterly flow Saturday night, large ridge/valley temperature
splits are not favored. While NBM lows in the upper 20s to low 30s
were retained - which would yield widespread frost - confidence
remains too low to warrant a Freeze Watch at this time. Should
warmer guidance in the mid-30s verify, patchy river valley fog may
develop instead.
High pressure settles overhead Sunday, bringing mostly sunny skies
with seasonable highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. For Sunday
night, the forecast maintains a colder, decoupled solution with lows
dropping into the lower 30s for much of the area. With high pressure
overhead, clear skies and light winds will allow for efficient
radiational cooling, which would support these colder valley
temperatures and result in areas of frost. However, forecast
confidence remains low: higher-resolution guidance, including the
RRFS, suggests a more modified airmass with lows holding several
degrees warmer in the mid to upper 30s. Given this spread and the
recent NBM cold bias, the inherited colder numbers were kept for
continuity. Should the warmer guidance verify, frost and possibly
freeze conditions could be limited to isolated cold spots, with
patchy river valley fog becoming the prevailing overnight feature
instead.
Quiet conditions will continue through Wednesday. Thereafter,
guidance suggests another upper-level cyclone digging out of the
Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes, with an attendant frontal
passage across the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys bringing rain
chances back to the area Thursday into Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 447 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2026
MVFR and low end VFR ceilings were on the way into the area at TAF
issuance, and will now last into the night. Ceilings are forecast
to break up from north to south during the night, with ceilings
dissipating area wide by around 08Z. However, confidence in the
timing of this is not particularly high. Assuming clouds do dry
up, localized valley fog with IFR or worse condition should
develop again, but it's not expected to affect TAF sites. VFR
conditions are expected to return area wide late in the morning
and last through the end of the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Saturday for
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-104-106-108-111-114.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...HAL
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 6, 4:47 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202611062147-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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