IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 12:54 AM EST
102
FXUS63 KIWX 050554
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1254 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers tapering off. Some lingering drizzle or very light
rain possible into the evening into the overnight. Another
front will bring chances for showers Thursday afternoon and
evening followed by a period of lake effect rain showers
Friday.
- Temperatures trending colder in the coming days, with highs
for Friday and Saturday in the 50s. Lows Fri and Sat night in
the 30s.
- Dry with slowly warming temperatures next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026
Initial trough will continue east across the area, taking the
measurable precipitation with it. Decent CAA will take place in its
wake, with 850mb temps dropping from the teens to +2 to +4 tonight.
Cloud cover will limit overall impacts of this, but overnight lows
will still be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than last night (mid to upper
40).
Focus thereafter will be on the next, stronger trough which should
be located from NE WI into NE IA at 12Z Thu. It will be a slow push
SE, reaching our NW counties closer to 22 or 23Z and then
progressing across the area during the evening. Models vary on
amount of precip with this feature but it would seem reasonable
given the amount of forcing and lingering low level moisture to see
some sprinkles or light showers at times in the afternoon then maybe
somewhat better coverage near/along the front. In its wake, even
colder air arrives with 850 mb temps dropping below zero by 12Z Fri
(coldest NW where values of -2 to -4 C will occur). This, combined
with lake temps in the mid teens will yield sufficient delta ts to
generate a lake response towards 12Z Fri. Ptype still appears to be
all rain (albeit cold), but with air temps Fri AM being near 40s a
heavier band could tap sufficient air to produce some graupel or a
few snow flakes. The worst of the coverage will likely occur between
12 and 18Z with some slow decrease towards 00Z and ending thereafter.
Highs Friday and Sat will struggle to reach 50 (a hair below normal
for early Nov). Overnight lows will dip into the lower 30s with a
freeze possible in some areas Saturday night as winds diminish and
skies clear. Growing season is over, so no headlines will be issued.
Pattern calms down with a slow moderating trend in temps next week
to near or slightly above normal levels. Med range models are
struggling with a southern stream wave and its impacts on moisture
return ahead of the next trough mid week. Dry forecast is maintained
at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1228 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026
In the wake of the cold front passage yesterday we will continue
to see mainly MVFR cigs with a few lower clouds and
sprinkles/drizzle at times through the overnight hours. Some
drier air does begin to push into the region by late morning
and early afternoon which will allow for some improvement to
cigs but look to remain MVFR ahead of the next disturbance that
moves through from the northwest and spread southeast later
tonight after 20z Thu. Westerly winds will back to more
northerly through the TAF period with gusts around 20kts
expected.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Andersen
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 12:54 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202611050554-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
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