IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 3:05 AM EST
922
FXUS63 KIND 050805
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
305 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Expect highs in the mid 50s to low 60s today with the potential
for scattered showers or drizzle this evening into tonight
- A return to more seasonable, cooler temperatures is expected
Friday through the weekend with lows near freezing at times
&&
.DISCUSSION (Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 304 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026
Today through Friday...
Latest satellite imagery depicts extensive low clouds persisting
across Indiana with considerable clearing noted across southern
portions of Illinois. This clearing is associated with dry air
advection which will help to eventually clear out clouds across
much of the area this morning. The clearing is only expected to
be brief as a weakening low pressure system and parent trough
approach later in the day.
Modest moisture advection from the approaching system will quickly
filter in extensive low clouds during the afternoon hours. Weak
forcing from the aforementioned features and an associated cold
front are also likely to promote scattered showers or drizzle this
evening into the overnight hours. Cooler 850mb temperatures combined
with low clouds filtering in will keep temperatures about 10
degrees cooler than yesterday. Look for highs to generally range
from the mid 50s to low 60s.
Extensive low clouds are likely to persist through the overnight
into Friday morning as guidance suggest the aforementioned cold
front does not move through until very late tonight. Cold air
advection behind the front will help to cool temperatures into the
low-mid 40s despite the clouds. At least partial clearing is
expected during the day Friday once drier air begins to filter in.
However, scattered to broken low clouds should persist for much of
the day aided by lake enhanced low-level moisture. Limited diurnal
on top of continued cold air advection will keep highs in the low-
mid 50s. A few lake enhanced showers or patchy drizzle cannot be
ruled out, mainly across far northern counties.
Friday night through the middle of next week...
Quiet weather conditions are expected towards the end of this week
through the middle of next week as surface high pressure generally
remains in control. Ensemble guidance depicts a few subtle systems
pushing weak cold fronts through the region. Gulf moisture remaining
cutoff will keep these fronts moisture starved allowing for dry
conditions to persist. Look for highs to remain in the 50s over the
weekend before moderating back into the 60s early next week.
Meanwhile, it appears Friday night through Sunday night will feature
near or sub-freezing lows across portions of central Indiana. Cloud
cover leads to some uncertainty in forecasted lows, primarily Friday
night.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1254 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026
Impacts:
- MVFR conditions improving to VFR through daybreak.
- Wind gusts between 20-25kt on Thursday.
- MVFR conditions return this afternoon and evening, light showers
possible mainly near LAF after 02Z Friday
Discussion:
HUF/BMG have recently improved to VFR while MVFR ceilings persist
near IND/LAF. Look for ceilings to improve at IND/LAF with VFR
conditions expected by daybreak. MVFR ceilings will return this
afternoon into the evening. Scattered light showers will be possible
near LAF tonight. There is a low chance for showers at HUF/LAF, but
confidence is too low for a mention in the TAFs.
Winds should prevail between 5-10kt out of the southwest, but expect
a brief period of more southerly direction towards daybreak. Winds
should then become more west-southwesterly through the day as
boundary layer mixing resumes. Gusts to 25 knots are possible during
the late morning and early afternoon hours.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...Melo
DISCUSSION...Melo
Source: IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 3:05 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202611050805-KIND-FXUS63-AFDIND)
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