JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 6:50 PM EST
839
FXUS63 KJKL 042350
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
650 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rainfall is ongoing across eastern Kentucky this afternoon, with
isolated embedded thunderstorms. This activity will continue
through the evening before exiting east of the state tonight.
- A series of cold fronts will pass through the area between
tonight and Friday. Together, they will usher a drier but
colder airmass into the region heading into the weekend.
- Sunday and Monday mornings could see frosty conditions across
portions of eastern Kentucky, along with some freeze potential.
The coldest temperatures will be in the deeper valleys.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 428 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026
The short term forecast period is centered around tonight's well-
advertised cold frontal passage, with waves of prefrontal showers
and thunderstorms currently ongoing across Eastern Kentucky. Most of
this activity has quite tame thus far, with widespread cloud
coverage helping mute the traditional diurnal warming curve and thus
limit the amount of available surface-based instability. In fact,
temperatures likely peaked earlier this afternoon. Area observations
reveal widespread thermometer readings in the 60s now, with a narrow
tongue of relatively warmer temperatures closer to 70 immediately
ahead of the frontal boundary west of Lake Cumberland. There has
been a break in the rainfall in this corridor this afternoon, and
stout vertically-stacked southeasterly to southwesterly flow has
kept a richly moist and warm airmass in place. So, these
southwestern portions of the forecast area will be the corridor to
watch for thunderstorms later this evening as frontal forcing
increases. The best chances for stronger storms remain displaced to
the south of the forecast area in the Tennessee River Valley, but a
breezy cell with locally heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out in our
southernmost counties. SPC and WPC have maintained Marginal Risks
for severe storms and excessive rainfall (respectively) across
portions of the JKL CWA this afternoon, but widespread hazardous
weather appears highly unlikely. Even in the aforementioned
mesoscale corridor, analyzed surface-base CAPE is less than 500
J/kg. Kinematic parameters like low level wind shear are more
impressive in this setup, but the CAPE-shear balance appears
unfavorable for severe storms to come to fruition. Likewise,
atmospheric precipitable water content (PWATs) are remarkably above-
normal for this time of year, with values above 1.6 inches ranking
near the 99th percentile of model climatology. However, the
antecedent dryness has left the ground quite resilient, and flash
flood guidance values are much higher than the combined
observed/remaining storm total rainfall. Furthermore, downsloped low-
level winds earlier today undercut the AM rainfall totals in SE KY.
Satellite and radar trends suggest that the entirety of Eastern
Kentucky will see a wetting rain by the time the clock strikes
midnight though. Such rainfall will prove beneficial to mitigating
any drought and fall fire weather concerns in the coming weeks.
Breezy winds with southerly directional components will persist
through tonight's frontal passage, helping keep pre-frontal
temperatures seasonably mild. As expected, today's strongest winds
have been observed in the higher elevation locales of Pike, Letcher,
Harlan, and Bell counties. Gusts have generally remained in the 25-
35mph range there, and winds should begin to subside area-wide after
sunset. The enhanced 850/925mb level flow that allowed stronger
winds to mix down to the surface at times today will pull away from
the forecast area as the parent troughing aloft pivots north and
elongates. However, flow throughout the entire column will maintain
a west-southwesterly orientation in the wake of the evening frontal
passage. Surface winds will veer towards the west as FROPA occurs,
but the persistence of SW flow aloft means that there won't be an
immediate surge of dry continental air advecting into the CWA.
Residual low level moisture will keep the hills of Eastern Kentucky
draped in a combination of stratus clouds and ground fog tonight.
The former could squeeze out some drizzle as the calendar turns to
Thursday, whereas the latter could be enhanced in coverage/thickness
by the wet grounds across the area. Both could insulate overnight
lows, which will likely take the form of a west-east gradient.
Clouds are forecast to erode from west to east tomorrow morning, so
the coldest temperatures (upper 40s/near 50) are forecast in the
Bluegrass and in places west of I-75. Further east and under the
greater/prolonged influence of clouds, temperatures are more likely
to remain insulated within the upper 50s.
Synoptic scale troughing will remain in place across the Greater
Ohio River Valley through the end of the short term forecast period,
with the mean trough axis situated to the west of the CWA. PWATs
should fall back towards seasonably normal readings tomorrow as
drier air wraps around the southwestern side of the occluded low
over the Upper Midwest. This dry air, coupled with the proximity of
a passing postfrontal surface high to the south, will lead to
relatively sunnier skies tomorrow. Highs will remain in the mid
60s/lower 70s given the lack of a true cold air advection regime,
but colder temperatures re-enter the forecast in the area's valleys
on Thursday night. Expect ridge-valley temperature splits in this
time frame, with the coldest valleys dropping down into the upper
30s/lower 40s. Ridgetops will likely remain in the upper 40s/lower
50s, and the area's conventional valley fog appears likely to
develop. That fog could create some localized visibility reductions
during the Friday morning commute, but this is not unusual for our
forecast area. In summary, the risk for widespread significant
weather impacts is low for the duration of the short term forecast
period.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 352 PM EST WED NOV 4 2026
The extended period of the forecast begins on Friday, as an upper
level low will be sinking southward from the Upper Great Lakes
region into the northern Ohio Valley throughout the day. The ECMWF
shows some precipitation on the southern extent of this low,
reaching northern Kentucky and possibly our far northern CWA.
Meanwhile, the GFS keeps us more dry other than some very brief and
light rain potential in the evening. This run of the NBM included
increased cloud cover and some very slight pops across the northern
CWA from 12 to 18Z, but nothing more. Will be interested to see how
the models, and therefore the NBM, trend with the next few runs - as
it could increase the pops throughout the day, or could end up being
a dry day across our CWA. Either way, the impacts from any rain will
be minimal and should only affect the northern CWA.
The upper level low will then continue to track east-southeast
towards the New England coast through the weekend, placing Kentucky
in the northerly flow portion of the system by Saturday. This,
coupled with strong high pressure and northerly flow at the surface,
will result in clearing skies and also a strong push of CAA. While
the current grids don't reflect it just yet, expect a decently
strong ridge/valley split in temperatures on both Saturday night and
Sunday night, with locations, especially deeper valleys, dropping
into the 20s. If this pans out, we will see our first hard freeze of
the season, effectively ending growing season.
Surface high pressure and weak NW flow aloft will remain in place
across the region through the rest of the period, Monday through
Wednesday, bringing with it dry and sunny skies, along with light
winds. Temperatures will warm ever so slightly after Sunday, but
should generally remain in the 60s for highs and 30s for lows.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 651 PM EST WED NOV 4 2026
Conditions vary between MVFR and VFR criteria at the time of
issuance, but MVFR conditions should spread to all terminals as a
cold front passes through tonight. Once the front clears,
southerly winds should shift towards more of a westerly
orientation. The frontal passage should bring about an end to the
ongoing rain this evening, but low stratus clouds are forecast to
hang around overnight. Patchy fog also cannot be ruled out given
the wet grounds, and this combination of fog and low stratus
should keep MVFR to IFR conditions in place overnight (especially
at southern and eastern terminals). Conditions will gradually
improve to VFR as skies clear throughout the day on Thursday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MARCUS
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...MARCUS/DISINGER/GEERTSON
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 6:50 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202611042350-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!