CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 12:50 AM EST ...06z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...
428
FXUS61 KCLE 050550
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1250 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026
...06z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Winds have trended higher on Lake Erie Thursday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain will continue across the area this evening, gradually ending
tonight. QPF still looks to average 0.25 to 0.50 inch.
2) A pattern change to cooler weather and showers is expected behind
a front Friday into Saturday, with the greatest coverage of rain in
NE Ohio and NW PA.
3) Gradual warming early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Satellite and water vapor loops this afternoon show a mid/upper
closed low over the Upper Midwest, with a surface low stacked
beneath over northern Wisconsin. This is placing an occluded
cold front from Lower Michigan through western Ohio. The front
being so far displaced from the closed low, as well as no true
cold air source, is leading to limited dynamics with this
system. However, a 40-50 knot southwesterly low-level jet is
helping to draw a band of deep moisture into the region to
support fairly steady rain ahead of the frontal boundary. This
rain will continue to be mainly light given the weak dynamics,
but expect it to be persistent through the evening. There should
be a lull after 00Z as the deepest moisture plume shifts east,
but expect one more uptick in showers right along the frontal
boundary in the 02-07Z period, especially in NE Ohio and NW PA.
This has been a consistent signal in RRFS runs. Total QPF
through tonight still looks to average 0.25 to 0.50 inch, so no
impacts are expected other than beneficial rain after being dry
for almost a full month.
As the mid/upper low lifts through the northern Great Lakes
tonight and into northern Ontario Thursday, a dry slot will wrap
into the region, so expect dry conditions late tonight through
Thursday. This will allow for quite a bit of sunshine Thursday
and continued mild temperatures, but it will be breezy due to
the relatively tight pressure gradient on the southern edge of
the mid/upper low. Expect SW winds to gust to 20-30 knots at
times from late morning through the afternoon as sunshine and
the dry profile leads to deep mixing.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A stronger mid/upper trough and associated closed low remain on
pace to dive through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Thursday
night and Friday. This will push a stronger cold front through
the region Friday, leading to a more substantial airmass change
to seasonable temperatures Friday through the weekend (highs in
the low/mid 50s). Moisture return ahead of the front is brief
before the front pinches it off, so even though showers will
gradually push into the region from west to east Thursday night
and Friday morning, QPF will be very light. Coverage of showers
Friday will be highest in NE Ohio and NW PA where boundary layer
winds shifting to W then NW behind the front and 850 mb temps
dropping to 0 to -3 C will support lake enhancement, so this
will keep showers going through the day in those areas. A
transition to pure lake effect rain showers Friday night will
continue through at least Saturday morning as NW flow, cold air
advection, and wraparound boundary layer moisture continues.
This will keep showers going across the "snowbelt" areas of NE
Ohio and NW PA, especially eastern Cuyahoga, Lake, Geauga,
Ashtabula, Trumbull, Erie, and Crawford Counties. Drier air and
a lowering inversion will finally end the lake effect by
Saturday night as high pressure noses in from the Mississippi
Valley, setting up a dry but seasonably cool Sunday.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
Another cold front will drop through the region Sunday
night/Monday tied to a mid/upper trough diving through the
eastern Great Lakes. This could bring a few lake enhanced
showers to NE Ohio and NW PA, but very low-impact since the best
forcing will pass to the east. Despite this front grazing the
area, temperatures will actually moderate early next week as a
continued split mid/upper flow across the CONUS floods Pacific-
based air eastward, so expect highs in the upper 50s to low 60s
Monday through Wednesday. A stronger trough could possibly bring
cooler air the second half of the week, but there continues to
be no source region for arctic air anytime soon as most of
Canada remains under abnormally high mid/upper heights and mild
Pacific air.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
The main message for aviation weather impacts with this TAF
update across northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania will be
MVFR to VFR ceilings during the next 24 hours. There is a weak
cold front that is moving from west to east across the area this
morning. There is a broken band of showers with this front
which could bring a brief period of lower MVFR visibility in
any steadier precip through 10z this morning, mainly for TAF
sites in far NEOH and NWPA. Otherwise ceilings will be broken to
overcast between 2500 and 3500 or higher for most of this TAF
period. Winds will be breezy 8 to 15 from the south and
southwest this morning through late this afternoon. The winds
will be higher between 12 and 15 knots between 15z and 00z later
today. Occasional gusts between 20 and 25 knots will be
expected late this morning through early evening. Winds will
relax after sunset this morning, less than 10 knots.
Outlook...Non-VFR likely with a cold front followed by
scattered lake effect clouds and rain showers Friday through
Saturday night.
&&
.MARINE...
S winds of 15-20 knots on Lake Erie will turn WSW behind a weak
cold front tonight. WSW winds will then increase to 15-25 knots
Thursday morning and continue through the day, so issued Small
Craft Advisories for the entire lake. See those products for
details. WSW winds will decrease to 10-15 knots Thursday night,
turning WNW at 15-20 knots behind a cold front Friday. We will
have to monitor for Small Craft conditions again Friday night
and Saturday when WNW to NW winds may average 15-25 knots,
leading to 3 to 5 foot waves.
Winds will gradually decrease Saturday night and Sunday, but
another period of stronger W winds is possible late Sunday into
Monday as another cold front brushes the region, so the active
time of year has finally arrived.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this
afternoon for LEZ142>145.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this
evening for LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...77
MARINE...77
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 12:50 AM EST ...06z TAF Aviation Forecast Update... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202611050550-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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