CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 12:29 AM EST
271
FXUS61 KCLE 040529
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1229 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rainfall amounts have increased slightly for tomorrow.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain will spread west to east across the area tomorrow bringing
a half to three-quarters of an inch of precipitation.
2) An upper trough over the region will lead to an unsettled pattern
continuing into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Dry weather today will come to an end early tomorrow morning as
a broad upper level trough and accompanying surface low
pressure track east into the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
region. Moisture transport from the Gulf will increase area
PWATs on Wednesday to around 1.50" which is above the 90th
percentile for early November at regional sites. Widespread
showers are expected to enter from the west Wednesday morning
and push eastward through the day before tapering off from west
to east in the evening. Can't rule out a few isolated embedded
thunderstorms tomorrow as SBCAPE values may briefly increase to
a few hundred J/kg in the morning and early afternoon. Severe
threat remains limited given the lower forecasted instability
amount. Overall rainfall amounts will range between 0.25-0.50
inches for much of the forecast area with locally higher amounts
of 0.50-0.75 inches most likely along and south of US-30.
Additionally, a 40-50 LLJ will move overhead tomorrow and allow
for southerly wind gusts to increase to 25-30 MPH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
There will likely be a window of dry weather on Thursday as the
trough lifts north before another trough sinks south Thursday
night into Friday. This secondary trough will lead to occasional
chances for showers downwind of Lake Erie through the weekend
and into early next week. Cooler temperatures expected this
weekend with highs in the 50s and overnight lows in the 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR conditions are expected early this morning ahead of a cold
front and rain entering the region from the west. A low level
jet will enter the region ahead of the front and present a LLWS
threat, mainly to the western TAF sites. As rain enters the
region during the late morning hours, ceilings will fall to
lower VFR and eventually to MVFR with persistent rain showers.
Winds will remain out of the south with gusts of 20 to 30 kts
with the rain today. Some IFR could develop, especially in
typical spots like KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG. The cold front will
move through the airspace late in the TAF period, ending the
rain and shifting winds to the southwest.
Outlook...Low pressure and a cold front crossing through the
region Friday into Saturday bring the next potential round of
non-VFR in rain showers/low ceilings.
&&
.MARINE...
Southerly winds 12-18 knots will continue across Lake Erie today
into tomorrow morning. A 40-50 knot low level jet will move overhead
the Lower Great Lakes during the day tomorrow which may
increase southerly winds to 15-20 knots Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Given the southerly component, the highest wave heights
of 3-5 feet will remain across the open waters despite the
higher wind speeds. Winds shift southwesterly behind a cold
front Wednesday night into Thursday before diminishing to 10-15
knots by Thursday evening. Winds turn northwesterly in the wake
of a trough Friday into the weekend with wind speeds generally
between 10 and 20 knots. Conditions, particularly in the central
basin, will be choppy with wave heights 2-4 feet expected.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures
Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie
11-03 77(1987) 76(2015) 79(1961) 80(1961) 80(1961) 80(1961)
11-04 80(2003) 77(2015) 79(2003) 76(2015) 77(2003) 78(2015)
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...13
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 12:29 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202611040529-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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