JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 2, 6:28 PM EST
565
FXUS63 KJKL 022328
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
628 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm conditions are expected to develop Tuesday and last into
Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front that will reach eastern
Kentucky Wednesday night.
- This cold front will bring widespread rain and higher rainfall
totals Wednesday into early Thursday.
- A cooling trend will take place from the middle of the week
into this weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 PM EST MON NOV 2 2026
Early evening obs were blended into the forecast, without any
substantive changes to the night as a whole.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 205 PM EST MON NOV 2 2026
An upper disturbance producing scattered areas of light rain
continues to track east out of the area this afternoon, with rapidly
building heights just underway as upper ridging begins to build into
the area. This will support rapidly clearing skies through the
remainder of this afternoon from south to north across eastern
Kentucky.
Southerly flow aloft increases overnight ahead of a highly amplified
trough/low across the High Plains. This trough/low will be phasing
with a southwesterly subtropical jet streak over the next 24 hours
over the Southwest US and northern Mexico, and then ejecting
northeast into the Lower Ohio Valley and then Great Lakes by
Wednesday morning. This will push a strong cold front east toward
the area Tuesday into Wednesday. Ahead of the front, strong south to
southeasterly winds will increase as early as tonight, but
especially so over the higher elevations of the Cumberland Mountains
late Tuesday into Tuesday night, with the LREF continuing to show
~35% probability for reaching 40 mph wind gusts near the top of
Black Mountain Tuesday night. Breezy conditions can thus also be
expected at lower elevations beginning late Tuesday afternoon
through Tuesday night, highest on ridgetops and exposed valley
locations, especially downwind of higher mountains and ridgelines.
The strong warm advection will allow temperatures to rise to well
above normal levels Tuesday, and remain mild into Tuesday night,
especially outside of the deeper sheltered valleys. Highs in the
upper 70s are expected across much of eastern Kentucky Tuesday, with
an 80-degree reading or two probable. Lows Tuesday night will range
from the 50s to lower 60s, but a few upper 40s will be possible in
eastern sheltered valleys if sufficient clearing and decoupling can
occur in the early part of the Tuesday night period. By the end of
the short-term period at 12z Wednesday, PoPs will be rapidly
increasing from the west as widespread rain is expected to move into
the area.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM EST MON NOV 2 2026
Tuesday Afternoon Through Sunday
Somewhat active weather is progged to return during this period
starting Wednesday. A large and mature upper level trough will
continue towards the region at the start of the period bringing a
surface low and a trailing cold front. At the time of our rain
chances the surface low will be near The Great Lakes and the cold
front will drape all the way south to the Gulf of America. Our rain
chances Wednesday will come from that cold front as it moves east.
With plenty of moisture and the front providing a forcing mechanism,
at least scattered showers are expected throughout the day on
Wednesday. A few hundred j/kg of MUCAPE could support some thunder
and heavier rain at times, but chances for organized severe weather
seem to be nill. Rain chances should exit eastern KY sometime
Wednesday night leading to dry conditions on Thursday and highs in
the low-mid 70s.
Shortly thereafter another upper level wave ejects and quickly moves
through the region to end the work week. Model guidance don't really
show any PoPs associated with this wave despite a 500mb vort max and
notable 500mb height falls. A look at forecast soundings show a
pretty dry column, probably from moisture being wiped out from
Wednesday's cold front and the atmosphere not being able to recover
yet. Dry air certainly makes sense, but am wondering if models are
overdoing the amount of dry air. Either way it'll need to be watched
to see if we start to trend wetter. Currently thinking most of the
area will stay dry Thursday and Friday but a few isolated showers
can't be ruled out. Look for highs on Friday to be around 70.
Scattered rain chances will likely remain for the weekend as models
suggest one or two more quick trough ejections move through the
region. Confidence is lower on the evolution of rain chances this
weekend, but given the upper level pattern, rain chances seem
probable. Highs will be more mild in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Something worth noting in terms of temperatures is that by this
weekend and into next week we will have a negative AO, NAO, and
positive PNA (cold phases). This lends towards an increased
potential for us to see moments of below average temperatures into
at least early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 628 PM EST MON NOV 2 2026
Any remaining VFR ceilings (in the 5-10K ft AGL range) over the
northern portion of the JKL forecast area will depart this
evening. This will leave mainly thin high clouds overnight into
the day Monday. Valley fog is expected to bring localized IFR or
worse conditions late tonight and early Monday, but it is not
forecast to affect TAF sites.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...DISINGER
AVIATION...HAL
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 2, 6:28 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202611022328-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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