PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 5:13 AM CST
331
FXUS63 KPAH 031113
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
513 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread showers and thunderstorms will move through the
area this afternoon through late tonight. A few strong to
severe storms are possible west of the Mississippi River.
- Dry but mild conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday.
- A cool down back to typical late fall temperatures is forecast
Friday and into early next week, along with continued dry
conditions.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 513 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026
Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1253 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026
As of early Tuesday morning, a neutral H5 trough exists across
the southern Plains with surface low pressure organizing over
the western Great Lakes. Expect the trough to become positively-
tilted as it progresses eastward, with the surface low moving
NW. Strong WAA will bring very mild temperatures (highs in the
middle to upper 70s) and elevated dew point temperatures (lower
to middle 60s) to the region this afternoon. Additionally,
gradient winds will gust to 25-35 mph at times from the south
today. With plentiful cloud cover, it will be difficult for
higher gusts to mix down, but isolated gusts up to 40 mph cannot
be ruled out.
SPC has areas near and west of the Mississippi River under a
MRGL risk for its Day 1 outlook. Convection will develop ahead
of the surface cold front across the Ozarks this morning and
afternoon and gradually march to the east. Storm-relative flow
will be more SW to NE, so the overall progression of the
precipitation will be pretty slow.
Looking the the latest CAMs, it does appear that there will be
some very meager SBCAPE over the MRGL risk area this afternoon,
but will quickly dissipate by tonight east of the Mississippi
River. The best shear will actually develop during the evening
hours after the SBCAPE has dissipated. Cannot rule out a few
strong wind gusts mixing down (or even a brief/weak QLCS spin-up
tornado), but overall the ingredients for significant severe do
not appear to line up. Given the SSW- NNE trajectory of the
convective elements within the complex of showers, locally
heavy rain from training thunderstorms will also be possible.
Some locations could receive a quick 0.75-1.5" of rain under the
heaviest activity.
Following the passages of the main complex of showers and
thunderstorms late tonight into early Wednesday morning, a few
wraparound showers from the surface low over the Great Lakes may
impact the EVV Tri-State, followed by a return of dry conditions
with clearing skies. Despite the frontal passage, the parent
surface low will weaken with zonal mid-level flow returning.
This means that temperatures will remain mild (above-normal by
5-10 degrees) Wednesday into Thursday. A couple dry cold fronts
will pass through the region Friday and again Sunday, bringing a
cool down back to near-normal temperatures for the end of this
week into early next week. Temperatures may get cold enough to
allow for another frost or potentially a freeze, which would
bring what's left of the growing season to an end.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 513 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026
Mid-level cloud cover will increase ahead of a complex of
showers with embedded thunder that will pass through the area
late this afternoon into tonight. Kept things simple for now,
with periods of SHRA with VCTS activity and MVFR cigs.
Additional modifications are likely as convection timing comes
into better focus. Gradient winds will be gusty from the S,
sustained at 10-15 kts with gusts up to around 25 kts.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 3, 5:13 AM CST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202611031113-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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