Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1544 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
558
AWUS01 KWNH 012004
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-020200-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1544
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2026
Areas affected...portions of lower MS Valley
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 012000Z - 020200Z
SUMMARY...Isolated flash flooding may occur through 02Z across
portions of the lower MS Valley. Thunderstorms, a few slow moving,
are likely to form with potential for isolated hourly rainfall
totals over 2 inches.
DISCUSSION...1940Z visible satellite imagery showed a cyclonic
swirl over southwestern LA with confluent/convergent axes noted
over southern portions of the state between I-10 and the coast as
well as in the vicinity of a surface trough extending northward
near the MS River. A second cyclonic swirl was noted near the
junction of AR/MS/LA. Precipitable water values remained high over
the region at 1.7 to 2.0 inches, but OSPO ALPW imagery showed that
this moisture was focused in the lower levels with a significant
layer of dry air sampled in the mid to upper levels.
SPC mesoanalysis data from 19Z showed 500 to 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE
over LA into southern MS with little to no inhibition and
radar/visible satellite imagery was already showing the expanding
development of showers/thunderstorms near the confluent/convergent
axes noted above. 0-6 km winds were less than 10 kt from the
southern AR/MS border into much of LA with the 850-300 mb layer a
bit higher, up to 20 kt. This could promote some slow movement of
cells with hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches, and isolated values of
2+ inches. However, given the different environment with respect
to the kinematic flow and drier air aloft, a repeat of the
isolated extreme rainfall observed on Halloween is not expected to
occur. However, overlap of locally heavy rain with urban areas or
locations that were impacted with heavy rainfall over the past 24
hours could see localized flash flooding through 02Z.
Otto
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...
ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...
LAT...LON 33419106 33139070 32649060 31859077 30919058
30409021 29818956 29508976 29299008 29159088
29449159 29569258 29859299 30219314 30719312
31359285 32799210 33329166
Source: Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1544 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE (https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=1544&yr=2026)
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