Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1535 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
694
AWUS01 KWNH 010054
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-010653-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1535
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
853 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026
Areas affected...portions of southern Louisiana and southern
Mississippi
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 010053Z - 010653Z
Summary...Slow-moving cells are capable of 2.5 inch/hr rain rates
at times, which could cause instances of flash flooding in urban
and/or sensitive locales.
Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts slow-moving
thunderstorms across Washington Parish/Pearl River County and St.
Charles Parish. Other weaker showers were increasing in coverage
as welll. The cells were in an abundantly moist environment
(1.5-1.9 inch PW, 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), supporting deep updrafts with
efficient rainfall rates. Furthermore, the cells were in an
environment with weak kinematics, but veering flow with height
supporting marginal supercell structures with very slow/nearly
stationary movement. Flow aloft at 300mb supports appreciable
storm ventilation, while difluence at 300mb was also supporting
subtle ascent within this regime to continue to support ongoing
convective activity. Spots of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates have
materialized on an isolated basis in this regime, and with
convective coverage increasing, a few more areas of high rain
rates could materialize over the next 2-4 hours.
FFG thresholds in most areas are generally well above 3 inch/hr.
This suggests that any flash flood risk will likely be tied to 1)
stationary cells that persist for more than one hour and/or 2)
urban/sensitive locales that contain hydrophobic surfaces/poor
drainage. The duration of this risk is a bit in question, though
models suggest potential for convection to persist through
05Z/midnight central or so.
Cook
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...
ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...
LAT...LON 31729050 31198901 30408845 29328889 29129062
29699281 30489312 31119289 31499207
Source: Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1535 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE (https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=1535&yr=2026)
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