CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 1, 1:53 AM EST
253
FXUS61 KCLE 010653
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
153 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
With this update, opted to add a slight chance of showers to western
counties tomorrow as forcing associated with a weak boundary moves
into the area.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure will continue to drift east through Tuesday with
gradually warming temperatures. Light, scattered rain showers are
possible Monday across the western counties.
2) Confidence is increasing that a strong low pressure will impact
the region midweek, resulting in widespread rain showers Wednesday
and Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure will continue to influence the area as it slowly
drifts towards the Mid-Atlantic Coast through Tuesday. With the area
now on the backside of the aforementioned high pressure, overall
flow will become more southerly allowing for an increase in both
moisture and warmer air across the area. Highs today and tomorrow
will climb into the upper 60s to low 70s before really warming into
the mid 70s on Tuesday. As the area transitions to this southwest
flow, conditions should remain dry today. However, late tonight
through Monday there is a mid-level push of energy that is expected
to move northeast through the area which could provide enough
support for some isolated shower development across western
counties. At this point not expecting anything widespread or any
heavy rain showers, however wanted to make note of the change given
previous forecasts were dry through Tuesday. By Monday night, the
axis of mid-level energy should push east, allowing for conditions
to dry out through Tuesday. No matter what, given the proximity of
the area to the departing high and approaching low pressure, mostly
cloudy skies are expected to stick around.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
The end of this prolonged period of dry weather looks to be in site
as confidence continues to increase that widespread precipitation
will impact the area Wednesday and Thursday. Behind the departing
high pressure discussed prior, a deepening upper level trough and
associated low pressure system over the north-central US is expected
to track east towards the Great Lakes region. Models are slowly
beginning to agree on the overall timing of the system through
Thursday, which essentially keeps the surface low over the region
and moves multiple boundaries east. This couples with strong upper
level support from the trough and an open stream of moisture from
the Gulf should result in multiple rounds of showers in the middle
of the week. The biggest uncertainty now is the progression of the
system once it reaches the region. Models have now begun to slow the
progression of this low, nearly stalling it over the region as the
overall pattern becomes less amplified. If this does occur, the
potential for showers could extend past Thursday possibly even
lingering into the weekend.
At this point, there are no flooding concerns with this
precipitation as it should be slow and steady limiting the localized
runoff from the dry antecedent conditions. In addition, given the
increasing temperatures into the mid 70s, cannot rule out a few
rumbles of thunder on Wednesday and Thursday, although overall
instability looks to be marginal given the expected cloud cover and
decreasing daylight hours. Temperatures through next weekend are
expected to remain above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
High pressure east of the area will allow for VFR conditions to
continue across the airspace with mid-level ceilings. Winds will
start from the east to southeast and shift to the south as
warmer air surges into the region. Some spotty showers will be
possible today and tonight with the warm air advection in the
region but probability of precipitation at a terminal is
extremely low and would likely not have any operational impact.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain on Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
A high pressure system will continue to slowly drift towards the Mid-
Atlantic Coast through Tuesday. This will result in south-southwest
winds of 5-10 knots to continue through Monday before increasing
Monday night to 10-15 knots from the south. These winds will be
consistent through Tuesday, allowing for waves along the southern
lakeshore of Lake Erie to remain 2 feet or less. By Tuesday night,
the aforementioned high will drift off the coast as a low pressure
system over the north central US tracks into the region. This robust
system will increase the gradient over the area and increase winds
from the south-southwest to 12-18 knots. Given the offshore flow,
waves should remain between 1-3 feet at most through at least
Thursday. Confidence begins to diminish as models diverge in
handling the progression of this low at the end of the week and into
the weekend with some models suggesting the aforementioned low
nearly stalls over the region. Will have to continue to monitor the
progression and any potential marine headlines needed.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...04
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 1, 1:53 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202611010653-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!