ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 2:00 PM EDT
711
FXUS61 KILN 261800
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and seasonably warm conditions will continue through the work
week.
2) The potential for rain returns for the latter part of the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Synoptically, a broad H5 ridge remains stretched across the eastern
half of the CONUS, ushering in a seasonably warm air mass throughout
the Ohio Valley. This ridge will dampen and result in more quasi-
zonal flow aloft as we progress into the middle of the week, but no
notable changes at the surface will be realized. For the entirety of
the work week, temperatures will trend above seasonal normals, with
overnight lows becoming more mild late week into the weekend.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
Global models and ensembles have been persistent in showing a shift
in the weather pattern across the Ohio Valley this weekend. This is
in response to a negatively tilted trough that swings through
portions of the Midwest region. A plume of moisture will be ingested
ahead of this trough, resulting in more cloud coverage on Saturday
and higher dewpoints that will keep overnight lows in the middle to
upper 50s Saturday night. The best forcing appears to arrive on
Sunday, resulting in the highest PoPs for our CWA. Still far enough
out that timing details aren't totally worked out, but note that we
could observe rain as early as Saturday evening depending on the
progression of this shortwave trough.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Plume of cirrus clouds will linger throughout the taf period. Some
valley fog is expected to develop again tonight, with primary impacts
at KLUK. Cannot rule out some brief MVFR vsbys at KLCK.
Surface winds remain light and variable, with a shift to the
southeast expected Tuesday morning.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Clark
AVIATION...Clark
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 2:00 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610261800-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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