CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 2:10 AM EDT
270
FXUS61 KCLE 290610
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
210 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Precipitation chances have increased to around 30-60% for much
of the area for a brief period of rain showers Thursday evening
into Thursday night. Precipitation chances on Sunday have
trended more towards Sunday night. The forecast for Monday has
trended drier.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above normal temperatures and dry weather, aside from
scattered rain showers Thursday night, will continue through
Sunday.
2) Rain chances return Sunday night through midweek.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure remains over the east coast through Thursday.
Southerly flow on the backside of the departing high will bring
well above normal temperatures (highs in the 70s, lows in
40s/50s), potentially challenging record high temperatures on
Thursday (see climate section below).
A low pressure system located well to the north near the Georgian
Bay will bring a cold front across the area Thursday night.
While moisture and lift is still lacking overall, rain chances
have increased to 30-60%. Some hi-res model guidance indicates
a decent chance at a brief, moderate rainfall with some of the
more intense rain showers, mainly across Northwest Ohio and near
Lake Erie farther east where there could be slightly greater
low-level moisture/convergence.
High pressure builds back in Friday through Sunday, ushering
"cooler" but still above normal temperatures with highs in the
60s and lows in the 40s/50s. Some of the typically cooler spots
of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania could get down
into the mid 30s Friday night.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
As high pressure departs to the east, broad isentropic lift
brings rain chances back Sunday night into early Monday. Latest
model guidance has trended toward lower PoPs and a drier day
Monday and even into Monday night as precip is mainly tied to a
warm front that lifts northeastward across the area Sunday
night. Any rain that does occur will be light and likely less
than 0.1".
A low pressure system and upper-level low approach the area from
the west, with rain chances on the rise midweek. This system has
a better chance to bring appreciable rainfall.
Temperatures will likely remain above normal into next week with
highs in the upper 60s and lows in the 40s/50s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR conditions are expected to continue at local terminals
through mid afternoon. A weak cold front will approach from the
northwest after 20Z and will be accompanied by scattered showers
with a very low potential for a thunderstorm. Included a tempo
for showers at TOL 21-23Z, CLE 23-01Z, and ERI 23-03Z. Showers
will likely reach FDY as well but expect to see a general
decreasing trend as the front pushes south through the evening
so only included showers in the vicinity at MFD/CAK/YNG. Brief
MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible with showers.
Otherwise several terminals will experience breezy southwest
winds gusting to around 20 knots ahead of the front, shifting to
the west/northwest behind the frontal passage between 00-06Z. A
few higher wind gusts to 30 knots are possible with showers.
Outlook...Mainly VFR. Low confidence in non-VFR with rain
Sunday night or Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Light and variable winds become 10 to 15 knots out of the
southwest tonight into Thursday before shifting northwesterly
to northerly behind a cold front Thursday night. Choppy
conditions with waves 2-4 feet in the central basin remain
possible behind the frontal passage. High pressure returns
Friday and Saturday allowing for northerly to northeasterly
winds to remain 10 knots or less. South winds less than 10 knots
develop Sunday into Monday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
We are forecast to be within a few degrees of record warmth on
Thursday. Here are the record high temperatures for our six
climate sites on October 29th:
Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie
10-29 79(2024) 79(1922) 78(2024) 77(1900) 77(2024) 77(2024)
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Saunders
AVIATION...10
MARINE...Saunders
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 2:10 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610290610-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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