CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 7:27 PM EDT
679
FXUS61 KCLE 252327
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
727 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
There are no changes to the forecast at this time.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and seasonable weather will continue early this week
before a warming trend mid to late week and eventually chances
for rain next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The impressive stretch of dry weather and near normal
temperatures continues today and will last for the early part of
the work week as the Omega Block gradually breaks down. A
northern stream mid/upper shortwave trough, currently over the
northern Great Lakes, will slide through Ontario, Quebec, and
the eastern Great Lakes Monday but will quickly deamplify due to
strengthening quasi-zonal flow across the CONUS. This will allow
the large surface high to retreat southwest from its position
along the East Coast this afternoon into the Tennessee Valley
Monday, which will allow a weak cold front on the western edge
of the shortwave to drop in from the north Monday afternoon.
This front will wash out over the CWA due to the mid/upper flow
rapidly turning quasi-zonal, but strong Canadian high pressure
at the surface building in behind it across the Great Lakes
Monday night and Tuesday will advect noticeably cooler air into
the region, especially near the lakeshore given gusty NE winds.
Expect highs Tuesday to fall into the upper 50s/low 60s near
the lakeshore, with mid/upper 60s further south, which will be
cooler compared to Monday.
The developing quasi-zonal flow pattern mentioned above will be
in full force by Wednesday and will continue into next weekend
as a subtropical Pacific jet extension, a response to the
powerful El Nino, pumps extensive shortwave energy into the West
Coast. This will eventually carve out a mid/upper trough and
associated large closed low along the West Coast next weekend,
helping to build a broad mid/upper ridge over the eastern CONUS.
As this all occurs, the Canadian surface high over the Great
Lakes Tuesday will retreat off the New England coast the second
half of the week, supporting deepening southerly return flow.
The end result will be a warming trend Wednesday into next
weekend, with temperatures 10 degrees above normal at times.
This will also allow the dry weather to continue until a
potential cold front late Saturday into Sunday, however, there
could be a few showers Thursday night in far NE Ohio and NW PA
as a northern stream shortwave and weak cold front try to brush
the region. Any QPF would be very light until a more widespread
chance for rain late Saturday into Sunday depending on phasing
between northern and southern stream energy.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Widespread VFR conditions will continue through this period with
light and variable winds expected. Patchy fog is possible Monday
morning, but confidence is too low to include in any TAF.
Outlook...Patchy fog is possible Monday morning, but otherwise
primarily VFR expected through Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Quiet marine conditions will continue on Lake Erie for one more
day as weak pressure gradients support continued light winds.
High pressure drifting into the Tennessee Valley tonight and an
approaching cold front will turn winds SW at 5-10 knots until
turning N at 5-10 knots by Monday afternoon and evening behind
the front. Strong Canadian high pressure building over the
central and eastern Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday will
bring a period of stronger 15-20 knot winds, and these could
build waves to around 3.5 or 4 feet in the western and central
basins. We are continuing to monitor for a potential Small Craft
headline Monday night into Tuesday. Winds will turn light again
Tuesday night and Wednesday before SW winds increase to 10-15
knots Wednesday night and Thursday, with W to SW winds then
continuing through the end of the week.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Garuckas
AVIATION...04
MARINE...Garuckas
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 7:27 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610252327-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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