CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 7:17 PM EDT
497
FXUS61 KCLE 242317
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
717 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
There are no major changes to the ongoing forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry, seasonable weather will continue through the first half
of next week before a warming trend. Overnight and early morning
fog will continue in NW Ohio and interior portions of NE Ohio/NW
PA, but coverage will trend lower through Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The southern Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley regions will
remain locked in the familiar weather pattern through early next
week. An Omega Block, characterized by a couple of mid/upper
troughs and closed lows rotating into the Rockies and Four
Corners regions and another trough/closed low set up off the
East Coast with sharp central CONUS ridging in between, will
gradually break down through Monday. This will allow strong
Canadian high pressure at the surface, currently centered over
southern New England, to drift south into the Mid Atlantic and
southern Appalachians by Monday. Another night of clear skies
and light winds with the high nearby tonight will allow lows to
dip into the upper 30s/low 40s, with some low 30s in far NE Ohio
and NW PA. Patchy frost is possible in those areas away from the
lake, but it will be of minimal impact since the growing season
has already ended up there. The bigger impact will be areas of
fog again tonight and Sunday night, but increasing SE return flow
to mitigate a daily lake breeze will start to lower dew points
enough to limit fog coverage at night. Expect decent fog
coverage in NW Ohio and interior parts of NE Ohio/NW PA again
tonight since sufficient low-level moisture and small temp/dew
point spreads will remain below the inversion, but coverage will
be less than last night and will further trend less Sunday
night.
A mid/upper shortwave dropping through the eastern Great Lakes
Monday will drive a weak cold front through the area Monday
afternoon, but very limited moisture return will lead to a dry
frontal passage. The main impact will be a brief cool down, with
highs in the upper 60s/low 70s Monday cooling into the upper
50s/mid 60s Tuesday as a new Canadian high builds down across
the Great Lakes. However, starting Wednesday and on into next
weekend, a strong subtropical Pacific jet extension (a response
to the powerful El Nino) will drive a series of storm systems
into the West Coast. This will build an expanding mid/upper
ridge over the eastern CONUS leading to a big warming trend.
Widespread 70s are possible the second half of the week and
into next weekend, with continued dry conditions until a cold
front possibly approaches late Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Dense fog is once again possible across NW OH Sunday morning,
primarily impacting KTOL, although a brief period of reduced
visibilities are also possible at KFDY and KMFD near sunrise.
Confidence is highest at KTOL and have opted to maintain 1/2SM
for a period near sunrise in that TAF. Aside from that, the
remainder of the period will have VFR conditions with southerly
winds of 3-7 knots expected.
Outlook...Patchy fog is possible Monday morning, but otherwise
primarily VFR expected.
&&
.MARINE...
Quiet conditions will continue on Lake Erie through Monday as
high pressure gradually drifts south along the East Coast. Light
winds this afternoon will turn generally S at 5-10 knots tonight
and Sunday before turning SW at 5-15 knots Sunday night ahead of
a cold front. Winds will turn N behind the front Monday
afternoon then NE Monday night and Tuesday while increasing to
15-20 knots. Small Craft headlines are possible Monday
night/Tuesday since winds have been trending a little higher.
Winds will gradually diminish Tuesday night while turning ESE,
with ESE winds of 5-10 knots Wednesday. A warm front lifting
across the lake Wednesday night will set up stronger SW winds
Thursday, but they look to stay below Small Craft criteria at
this time.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Garuckas
AVIATION...04
MARINE...Garuckas
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 7:17 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610242317-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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