JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 1:31 PM EDT
025
FXUS63 KJKL 231731 AAB
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
131 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather persists into next week, with clear skies, mild
days, and chilly nights expected.
- Light, patchy frost may develop tonight and again on Saturday
and Sunday nights in sheltered valleys away from lakes, rivers,
and larger creeks. Fog is more likely near those bodies of water.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
Fog lingers in portions of the Kentucky, Big Sandy, and Cumberland
River basins at this time. However, this fog continues to
gradually lift and should dissipate over the next hour or so as we
progress further into the morning. Otherwise, sunny skies are
anticipated with high pressure dominating.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
The weather pattern remains stuck on repeat this morning. Fog is once
again threading its way through the deeper river valleys of eastern
Kentucky under clear, starlit skies. Temperatures range from the
mid 30s in the coldest valleys up to around 50F on thermal belt
ridges. A sprawling surface high dominates the weather across
nearly all of the eastern CONUS, though its actual ~1029 mb center
is situated southeast of James Bay. Aloft, a robust 500 hPa ridge
axis extends from Texas northward to along the Manitoba/Ontario
border.
The overall change in the weather pattern through the duration of
the short-term period will be limited. The surface high will
strengthen further and sink southward, with its ~1035 mb center
situated near/over New Jersey by Saturday evening. Meanwhile,
heights will rise aloft over eastern Kentucky as the parent 500
hPa ridge becomes more positively tilted from the Ark-La-Tex
northeastward to over southern Quebec. Low-level flow veering
more easterly should preclude any substantive advection during the
short term, and this should allow for a little moderation in
temperatures through Saturday. Most notably, while there should
be substantial patchy frost in the colder hollows early this
morning, any frost should be more sparse and confined to the
coldest hollows tonight as the air mass moderates a little.
Otherwise, fog will form in many of the typical river valley spots
through the remainder of the pre-dawn hours this morning, with a
similar pattern expected for tonight into early Saturday morning.
In sensible terms, river valley fog and any light frost this morning
will burn off and give way to sunny skies. It will again be
seasonable with high temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s. Clear
skies follow tonight with fog in the favored river valleys and
patchy frost, mainly in the outlying colder hollows. It will be
seasonably chilly with lows ranging from the mid 30s in the coldest
hollows to the mid 40s on thermal belt ridges. Looking ahead to
Saturday, bright sun returns with afternoon highs moderating very
slightly into the upper 60s to lower 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 409 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026
Persistence forecasting prevails in the initial stages of the long
term forecast period, but change is now visible on the horizon. The
antecedent ridging pattern peaks on Sunday, when a 588-590 dam ridge
axis will stretch up the Mississippi River Valley and into the Lower
Ohio River Valley. In other words, the ridge axis will be positioned
immediately upstream of the CWA in Western Kentucky. Such positioning
will keep Eastern Kentucky in a regime of dry northerly flow aloft,
and the related subsidence should sustain mostly clear skies for as
long as the pattern persists. Expect efficient diurnal radiation and
mixing processes to dominate the sensible weather forecast as a
result. So, overnight ridge/valley temperature splits (ridges in the
40s and valleys in the 30s), nocturnal valley fog/frost formation,
and seasonably warm/sunny afternoons were all maintained in the
forecast grids through Monday afternoon.
The ridging pattern is progged to break down beyond then, although
models resolve the evolution of this pattern shift quite
differently. Confidence is high that the ridging will flatten from
Monday night into Tuesday. The flow aloft will shift to a more
westerly and then southwesterly orientation in this time frame,
leading to modest midlevel moisture return and a gradual increase in
clouds. Sky cover should peak on Wednesday morning as a shortwave
trough propagates towards the region, but this is not accompanied by
any meaningful precipitation chances. Ensemble probabilities for
measurable (>0.01 inches) precipitation remain below the 15%
threshold through midweek. This can largely be attributed to the
lack of meaningful low-level warm/moist air advection out ahead of
the system's arrival, but forecast confidence begins to decrease
beyond then. Some guidance keeps a regime of deeper west-
southwesterly flow in place over the region as the initial
disturbance deamplifies and phases with broader troughing digging
into the Midwestern CONUS. Other model solutions show shortwave
ridging building into the area late next week, followed by a
potential Halloween weekend storm system. The former solution
would favor increased atmospheric moisture, greater sky cover, and
thus slight cooler temperatures. While the latter camp of
solutions would initially favor warmer and drier weather, there
would be an opportunity for deeper SW flow to build into the area
on the backside of that ridging feature. If that deeper SW flow
regime materialized, the approach of the next upper atmospheric
disturbance around Halloween could introduce more meaningful
precipitation chances to the forecast. So, interests with outdoor
spooky season plans are encouraged to monitor for forecast
updates in the coming days, as guidance will likely come towards a
consensus by early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
High pressure at the surface and aloft will dominate the weather
through the TAF period. Clear skies were occurring at issuance
time, with light and variable to northeast winds at less than
10KT. Winds will become light and variable with the loss of
daytime heating this evening. Otherwise, fog should again develop
and affect several valley locations along area rivers, larger
creeks, and lakes between about 04Z and 14Z. In those locations,
reductions to IFR or worse are possible. At this time, the TAF
sites are not expected to be affected.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...JP
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 1:31 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610231731-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL-AAB)
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