BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 2:36 PM EDT
054
FXUS61 KBOX 231836
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
236 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes have been made to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather through the weekend with chilly/frosty nights and
sunny/mild afternoons. Lows mainly in the 20s & 30s with highs
in the upper 50s-lower 60s Sat and well into the 60s Sun.
- High pressure dominates through next week bringing plenty of
sunny days and cooler nights.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather through the weekend with chilly/frosty
nights and sunny/mild afternoons. Lows mainly in the 20s & 30s with
highs in the upper 50s-lower 60s Sat and well into the 60s Sun.
Distant offshore ocean storm will continue to lift NE and move
further way losing its grip on our region. Lingering gusty winds
across the Cape/Islands will diminish early this evening.
Otherwise...a large 1035+ mb high pressure system will build
overhead from the west through the weekend. The result will be
mainly clear skies with chilly/frosty nights and mild sunny
afternoons. Excellent radiational cooling conditions will allow for
lows to drop into the 20s across the normally colder outlying
locations with mainly 30s elsewhere. Meanwhile the Urban Heat Island
of Boston will probably not drop below 40. Highs Sat will recover
nicely into the upper 50s and lower 60s and well into the 60s Sun.
Winds will also be rather light resulting in comfortable afternoons
for the latter half of October.
KEY MESSAGE 2...High pressure dominates through next week,
bringing plenty of sunny days and cooler nights.
Strong high pressure will prevail across New England for most of
next week. Mostly sunny skies, dry conditions, and mostly calm winds
are expected for a majority of the week, leading to good radiational
cooling most nights. Day time temperatures are likely to remain in
the upper 50s to mid 60s and nighttime temps generally in the low to
mid 30s for most of southern New England.
Two exceptions to the pleasant conditions: a weak cold front drops
into the region Tuesday, leading to some gusty winds Tuesday
afternoon/evening along the Cape/Islands/SE MA and cooler
temperatures behind the front on Wednesday (likely in the low 50s).
This front looks to be moisture-starved and not likely to produce
any showers at this time.
A second cold front looks to sweep through sometime Thursday
night/early Friday morning, bringing some slightly increased PoPs
(10-20) to portions of SNE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18z TAF Update...High confidence.
VFR conditions continue through the weekend. Lingering NE 20-30 knot
wind gusts across the Cape/Islands diminish early this evening.
Otherwise...sustained winds generally 10 knots or less through the
weekend.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Monday through Wednesday/...
Monday: VFR.
Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight through Sunday...High confidence.
Lingering NE wind gusts of 20-30 knots across our eastern waters
diminish this evening as distant offshore low pressure system loses
its grip our region. Otherwise...a large high pressure system builds
in from the west across our waters this weekend. Seas will continue
to diminish...but lingering swell will keep some marginal sca seas
into our southeastern most waters into Sat evening. After that
time...all of our waters will have finally dropped below small craft
advisory criteria.
Outlook /Monday through Wednesday/...
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 20 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ231-232-
251.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ250.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ254-255.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ256.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Frank/McMinn
AVIATION...Frank/McMinn
MARINE...Frank/McMinn
Source: BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 2:36 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610231836-KBOX-FXUS61-AFDBOX)
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