MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 1:01 PM CDT ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
992
FXUS64 KMOB 221801
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
101 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1043 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
- Moderate to strong northeast winds WILL create hazardous
conditions for small craft over most of the marine area Friday
night continuing into next week.
- A High Risk of rip currents is expected for beach areas from
Saturday through Sunday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1043 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Starting out late this morning rather quiet yet again. GOES-16
Satellite illustrates completely clear skies across the
southeastern US dominated by a large surface high anchored over
the great lakes, promoting upper-level subsidence across nearly
the entire central and eastern US. Upper-level maps highlight the
attendant deep/high amplitude ridge over the central US, with a
dry mid/upper-level impulse diving south into the central Gulf as
indicated by a pocket of colder H5 temperatures aloft and
associated PVA which, given how dry the tropospheric profile is,
only has a few clouds and shower/storms over the central Gulf.
Atmospheric PW's in the 0.5-0.65 inch range per GOES-16 derived
precipitable water product falls at or below the 10th percentile
for this time of the year highlighting how anomalously dry this
airmass is.
Having said all of that, for today, only main adjustments were
focused on dewpoints and minimum temperatures following along
recent trends. Starting with dewpoints, a deep PBL mixing regime
setting up later this afternoon will again drop dewpoints below
NBM deterministic suggested values. Verification from yesterday
(area mean dewpoints) placed RTMA/observed dewpoints closest to
verify with the NBM05th percentile. Impressive but not uncommon in
anomalously dry airmasses like this. Went ahead with a 05th
percentile blend for this afternoon mainly, and again into each
afternoon into the weekend. This places minimum RH's this
afternoon in the 30-40% range, but drops some going into Friday
and Saturday as we get a reinforcing shot of drier air spilling in
from the northeast following the surface high diving south across
the eastern US, compacting pressure gradient which in turn
increases the winds. Fire weather concerns may need to be closely
monitored, mainly for western areas Saturday and Sunday. Meanwhile
for areas east, concerns remain for those still burning tree
debris left over from Hurricane Isaias - With breezy winds and
even though RH's are not exactly in criteria, wanted to stress
those to use extreme caution and take safety precautions when
burning.
As for overnight lows, made slight lowering adjustments each
morning. The NBM Deterministic bias has attempted to try to catch
up to the past several days cold bias, with the deterministic now
even below the lowest percentile member (5th percentile). Again,
impressive but reflects the extreme warm bias in short-range
models. Given verification trends, went deterministic since it was
the coldest values through the next 3 mornings but dipped it a
couple degrees even lower. Didn't want to overshoot too far as
percentile spread this extreme yields lower confidence, but
wanted to keep trends in the right direction.
As previously mentioned, the reinforcing shot of drier air and
tightening pressure gradient winds over the weekend will bring
back breezy ENE winds. Highs will drop several degrees Saturday
and it'll feel cooler/drier but again, overall, very little
impacts other than exercising extreme caution if planning to do
any burning. Again will closely monitor the degree of the dry air
and winds across the swath that experienced extreme tree damage
and will continue to stress caution if burning.
Beyond this weekend into next week, diving into cluster analysis
and long-range trends, looking relatively deamplified across the
US into a quasi-zonal H5 pattern. Few low amplitude shortwave
impulses riding the flow could introduce partly cloudy skies
around mid-week, but appears mainly dry. Long-range ensembles per
cluster analysis is in relatively good agreement overall with no
extreme swings. Some minor decrepancies between the potential in
PacNW or west coast troughing, that would eventually trickle
downstream to our area beyond 7 days. Swing solutions here vary,
as ofcourse, deeper troughing could eject disturbances over the
Mexican Plateau into the central/southern MS valley region
introducing the potential for storms going into the first week of
November. Definitely too early to narrow down specifics but will
keep an eye on it. KLG
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A high pressure
north of the area will provide tranquil conditions for an excellent
day of flying. By Friday morning winds will become more easterly
with a slight uptick in speed.
KL/31
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1043 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Main impacts will mainly be this upcoming weekend as increasing
pressure gradient winds cause a steady increase in ENE mainly
offshore winds. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to
begin late Friday into Saturday, which will continua into early
next week. Wave/seas will respond mainly late Saturday into Sunday
reaching greater than 7ft for offshore Gulf zones. KLG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 81 53 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 80 58 79 56 / 0 0 0 0
Destin 78 59 79 56 / 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 80 47 79 45 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 81 47 80 43 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 78 47 77 44 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 81 49 79 47 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source: MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 1:01 PM CDT ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610221801-KMOB-FXUS64-AFDMOB)
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