LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 1:51 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...
247
FXUS63 KLMK 221751
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
151 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Locally dense river valley fog is possible early this morning.
* Patchy frost will be possible early Friday and Saturday mornings,
mainly in sheltered rural areas.
* Dry weather and consistent temperatures are expected through next
Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026
Another calm, clear night is producing optimal conditions for
radiational cooling. Temperatures are in the 40s in most areas and
will continue to settle into the upper 30s and lower 40s through
daybreak. Our coolest rural, sheltered low spots in the Bluegrass
and Lake Cumberland regions could see mid 30s and patchy frost early
this morning.
Recent satellite imagery shows the development of river valley fog
across eastern KY, a trend that will expand into central KY through
the pre-dawn hours. The fog may become locally dense between 5-9 AM
EDT, mainly along the river valleys. Fog should largely dissipate by
mid-morning, and another round of valley fog looks likely early
Friday.
Our stretch of spectacular weather continues today. An upper level
ridge is positioned over the central CONUS, with upper troughing
over each coast. Broad high pressure at the surface, centered off to
our N and NW, is contributing to a dry airmass and persistent NE low-
level flow. In the short term, the upper level ridge is forecast to
drift slowly eastward toward the MS Valley while sfc high pressure
strengthens as it shifts southeast across the eastern US and Canada.
Ridging, both at the surface and aloft, will then build over our
region through the weekend and into early next week.
Stubborn high pressure and a notably dry airmass give us high
confidence in dry weather through next Wednesday. In short, largely
dry weather is likely through the last several days of October.
Temperatures will be fairly steady over the next week as well, with
afternoon highs ranging from the upper 60s and lower 70s in the
Bluegrass to the low/mid 70s elsewhere. Overnight temps will dip
into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Friday and Saturday mornings both
have patchy frost potential, especially in rural, low-lying areas.
It is unclear when our next chance for appreciable rainfall will be.
A frontal system could bring a brief shot for light rain by late
next week or over Halloween weekend, but confidence in this is very
low at this time. Again, mainly dry weather is expected through the
end of the month.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 151 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Winds
this afternoon will be out of the NNE at 5-10 kt, diminishing after
sunset. Winds will shift to more of an easterly direction Thursday
night, with speeds getting up to around 7 kt by the end of the TAF
period. Patchy valley fog is possible tonight, though confidence was
too low to include in any of the TAFs.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...EBW
AVIATION...BEN
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 1:51 PM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610221751-KLMK-FXUS63-AFDLMK)
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