LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 21, 2:49 PM EDT
356
FXUS63 KLMK 211849
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
249 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dense river valley fog is expected overnight and into the morning.
Patchy fog may form outside of valleys as well.
* Daily highs will remain in the low to mid 70s through the weekend
as stubborn ridging keeps us dry.
* Beautiful weather is expected into early next week. Dry weather
will continue through at least next Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026
===== Pleasant Afternoons with Chilly Mornings and Valley Fog =====
Weather conditions continue to be warm, sunny, and pleasant across
the whole area. Temperatures are all in the low 70s with all but
calm winds. The center of a ridge axis is parked directly overhead
causing the nice weather. Despite the ongoing mixing, temperatures
will tumble to the saturation point across multiple areas in the CWA
overnight with lows in the low 40s and upper 30s. In the deepest
decoupled valleys overnight, dense fog is expected to form along
with patchy frost as isolated spots could reach the low to mid 30s.
The frost potential will remain confined to our easternmost valleys.
Fog will form in low lying areas across the CWA, meaning another SPS
will be issued for patchy dense fog, though confidence is a little
low for a Dense Fog Advisory. Highest fog chances are near 40%, with
under 20% chances in areas further west.
Despite the chilly and potentially foggy morning, the CWA will mix
out quite nicely Thursday afternoon. A very weak cold front will
move in from the NW from a departing low pressure in Canada. May not
see or feel much of a difference as this passes by. At most, this
front will knock our highs down by a degree or two compared to
today. Sunny skies will linger and the threat for more valley fog
will persist Thursday night into Friday morning.
===== Stagnant, Slow Pattern Change Until Next Week =====
By the weekend, the ridging at the surface will be reinforced with
ridging at higher levels, indicating little changes in our weather.
Means that highs in the low to mid 70s will continue along with the
daily valley fog threat each morning. Mid level ridging slowly
weakens along with the surface high pressure by early next week.
Long range trends are painting a picture of an approaching trough
weakening and lifting north as it tries to push into the antecedent
dry air mass we'll still have in place by Tuesday-Wednesday. PoPs
remain under 10% which means rainfall is highly unlikely. We may
return into a wet/busy pattern by Halloween weekend, although
confidence this far out is really low.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 139 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026
VFR conditions will continue now through the evening and early
overnight hours. Winds primarily from the N-NE will be very light,
or calm to variable this afternoon. Calm winds are expected
overnight. There is a slightly stronger signal for fog at some
airports Thursday morning and was included in the TAF at HNB-BWG-
RGA. Otherwise, light winds return from the N-NE tomorrow with VFR
conditions and sunny skies.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BKF
AVIATION...BKF
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 21, 2:49 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610211849-KLMK-FXUS63-AFDLMK)
---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!