IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 9:48 PM EDT
728
FXUS63 KIND 210148
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
948 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry yet pleasant fall weather will prevail through this weekend
- Light winds and partly/mostly clear skies will oversee near to
slightly above normal temperatures
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 948 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026
Similar to recent evenings, clear skies and light winds have led to
a rapid temperature fall, especially in favored cold spots. Adjusted
hourly forecasts to match current observational trends. Also nudged
down low temperatures as well, mainly in those favored cold spots.
Patchy ground fog will likely develop later tonight. However,
the more widespread fog expected to develop from low level moisture
advection from the northeast will likely remain out of the local
area.
&&
.DISCUSSION (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026
Quiet weather is expected through the next seven days as surface
high pressure remains dominant across the region. Guidance is in
good agreement through the end of the week, showing upper ridging
amplifying as it builds eastward across the region. Large scale
subsidence will continue to keep the forecast dry. A weak cold front
may push in from the northeast Thursday Night into Friday. The
boundary appears very weak with temperatures only expected to drop a
few degrees at most.
Temperatures will slightly warm over the weekend due to return flow
as surface high pressure shifts east of central Indiana. Highs in
the upper 60s to low 70s Friday should warm into the low-mid 70s by
Sunday. Long range guidance begins to diverge regarding the upper
level pattern towards the end of the weekend. A southern stream
wave will likely get pulled northward and absorbed into the
northern stream trough. Models differ on the overall evolution of
these two features which leads to greater uncertainty in the extended
forecast.
A cold front associated with the northern stream trough should
eventually move through central Indiana around the early to
middle of next week, but confidence on specific details such as
timing remain limited. There also appears to be a non-zero chance
for light precipitation from the approaching boundary. Some
guidance depicts a narrow band of sufficient moisture surging
north ahead of the boundary and weak forcing supporting the
potential. These solutions remain the outlier though with most
guidance suggesting the limited moisture return will not be enough
to overcome lingering dry air. The forecast remains completely dry
for the time being until guidance becomes better aligned. Once
the front eventually moves through, a cooler trend towards
seasonal temperatures can be expected.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 618 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026
Impacts:
- Brief MVFR visibility in fog around 12Z for some sites
Discussion:
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period with surface
high pressure remaining in control. Winds will be light and will
continue to vary in direction during the period.
Ground fog is possible around 12Z. At the moment, am only confident
enough to add at KLAF/KBMG, but certainly cannot rule it out
anywhere. A larger area of advection fog looks to remain northeast
of the TAF sites.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...50
AVIATION...50
DISCUSSION...Melo
Source: IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 20, 9:48 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610210148-KIND-FXUS63-AFDIND)
---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!