JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 3:07 PM EDT
715
FXUS63 KJKL 191907
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
307 PM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A light, mainly patchy, frost is possible again tonight and
Tuesday night, primarily in sheltered valleys away from lakes,
rivers, and larger creeks.
- Expect near-normal temperatures throughout the work week, with
mostly clear skies and overnight ridge-valley temperature splits
likely to continue through at least next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 307 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
Bright sunshine prevails across eastern Kentucky this afternoon with
temperatures ranging from the mid 60s over the ridges to around 70F
in the warmest valleys. There is not a cloud to be seen for hundreds
of miles around eastern Kentucky. Not only is it dry aloft, dew
points at the surface range from the mid 30s to the mid 40s, yielding
RH values in the 30 to 40 percent range for most places - very
comfortable. This delightful mid-autumn weather is courtesy of an
~1030 mb surface high centered over the Upper Ohio Valley (there
is a second center over the Minnesota Arrowhead). That expansive
surface high is supported by broad upper-level ridging over the
heart of the CONUS, with an 500 hPa axis lying near the Mississippi
River.
The pattern remains fairly stagnant through the short-term period.
The upper-level ridge over the CONUS will retrograde westward to
a position more over the High Plains, while ridging further north
in Canada shears eastward into Quebec, leading to weak height
falls over the Ohio Valley. Nothing more than some passing high
clouds are expected in the disturbed flow aloft late tonight and
on Tuesday. The surface high pressure center to our northeast
will fade away and be replaced by the northern surface high as
that high passes over the Upper Great Lakes/ Northern Ontario
tonight and then over the St. Lawrence Valley by Tuesday night.
Locally, this will continue to bring more of what we are already
seeing: a cool and dry northeasterly low-level flow down the
Appalachians and across eastern Kentucky. Dew points will remain
low enough to favor patchy frost each night in sheltered valley
locations away from larger stream courses/lakes, while the
moisture contribution from significant water sources will tend to
favor fog formation in the typical mainstem river valleys and
their larger tributaries.
In everyday terms, anticipate clear skies through late tonight,
with temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s falling off rapidly as
the sun sets this evening. Valley fog is likely to form in the
deeper river valleys and patchy frost in the sheltered hollows as
temperatures settle back into the mid 30s in the coolest hollows
to the mid 40s on thermal belt ridges. Looking ahead to Tuesday, a
few wisps of cirrus/cirrocumulus will filter the sun for some;
otherwise, any early morning fog and frost will give way to mostly
sunny skies and temperatures rebounding back into the upper 60s
to mid 70s by mid-afternoon. The story for Tuesday night is
similar to the prior night as skies trend clear behind any departing
high clouds. Fog formation will again be likely in the river
valleys while patchy frost cannot be ruled out in the colder
hollows, as thermometers once again dip into the mid 30s in the
chilliest hollows to the mid 40s on thermal belt ridges.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
The forecast remains on track, with models and ensembles in good
agreement through the work week. Broad upper-level ridging over the
central CONUS and robust surface high pressure south of James Bay
will maintain tranquil weather across eastern Kentucky. Expect
rain-free days, mostly clear skies, and a gradual day-to-day
moderating trend in temperatures. Toward next weekend, an
upper-level trough progressing east across Canada may begin to
suppress the ridge and displace the surface high eastward.
Previous Discussion...
The long-term 18/12Z model suite beginning Tuesday morning is in
good agreement, showing broad upper-level ridging (the dominant
controlling weather feature for the long term) over the heart of
the CONUS with its ridge axis roughly aligned with the
Mississippi River. This continues to support robust surface
high pressure sprawling across much of eastern North America,
centered on a roughly 1035 mb high situated south of James Bay.
North to northeasterly low-level flow will continue to filter
down the Appalachians along the eastern side of the high
through the new work week. Uncertainty increases next weekend
regarding the ridges continued maintenance as an upper-level
trough may eject eastward from the Pacific and break it down,
though a slim majority of the 00Z LREF members still favor the
ridge holding firm into the last week of October.
In sensible terms, this persistent surface ridging and
northerly to easterly flow will keep fair and seasonably cool
weather across all of eastern Kentucky with only a slow
moderating trend. Highs on Tuesday are forecast to range from
the mid 60s to lower 70s, moderating into the upper 60s to mid
70s by Sunday. Meanwhile, nighttime lows start off in the mid
30s to lower 40s on Tuesday night and only moderate slightly to
the upper 30s to mid 40s by the weekend. Lingering patchy
frost is probable Tuesday night into early Wednesday for the
sheltered valleys, and additional isolated patchy frost cannot
be entirely ruled out later in the week in the coldest
sheltered hollows. Otherwise, at least patchy fog is likely
along the mainstem rivers and larger tributaries on most
nights.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
Surface and upper level ridging will remain in place across the
region through the period. This will lead to light winds and only
a few high clouds on Tuesday morning. River valley fog, dense in
some areas, is likely to show up again tonight after 04Z and then
dissipate again by ~14Z Tuesday. The fog is not expected to affect
the TAF sites with any visibility reductions.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GEERTSON/GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 3:07 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610191907-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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