IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 18, 5:01 AM EDT
269
FXUS63 KIWX 180901
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
501 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- After a possible period of patchy frost tonight and maybe
Monday night, lows trend warmer, away from frost potential.
Highs also moderate to near or just above normal.
- Dry weather remains across the area through this week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026
Surface high pressure slowly slides eastward today from the southern
Great Lakes and then a couple more surface high pressure systems
pass by to the north of the Great Lakes Tuesday and Thursday.
Meanwhile, mid level ridging continues to keep the area within a
large scale area of subsidence quelling any large scale area of rain
through this week and probably through next weekend. This is even as
a cold front stalls around the area Monday night/Tuesday and another
cold front moves through later Wednesday/Thursday AM time frame.
These FROPAs will be dry FROPAs. Troughs attempt to make their way
eastward but continue to run into the stout mid level ridge east of
the Rockies through this work week. As such, various vort
maxes/surface lows take a northeast trek from the Plains into the
western Great Lakes/southcentral Canada area. Attempts by WAA
to affect the area cause a slow warming trend through the 60s
today and Monday, reaching the 70s for highs on Tuesday
southwest of US-30 through this week. Daily lows look to trend
warmer as well beyond this morning. There's a marginal chance
for frost Monday morning with about 3 hours of 38 degree temps
or less, especially south of US-24. However, another
frost/freeze issuance will depend on if the growing season
continues or if this morning's temps ended things. The area is
fairly dry with MinRH values dipping into the 20s and 30s of
percents today through Tuesday, but low level lapse rates aren't
as strong as they could be, and even more of a factor, wind
gusts are below considerable thresholds. Future dry days are
possible beyond Tuesday, but wind gusts don't look respectable
at this time. It is also possible our forecast dew points are
too high as currently constituted beyond Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026
Dry and stable air mass will continue to promote VFR conditions
and clear skies. Return south-southwest flow on the backside of
sfc high pressure may support a few gusts up to 20 knots this
afternoon at KSBN otherwise.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for
INZ005-012>015-020-022-103-104-203-204.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for INZ006>009-017-
018-023>027-032>034-116-216.
OH...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
MI...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MIZ078>081-177-
277.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Roller
AVIATION...Steinwedel
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 18, 5:01 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610180901-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
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