LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 15, 12:34 AM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
783
FXUS64 KLIX 150534
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1234 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1058 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through
Friday, with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s.
- A strong cold front will move through late Friday and Friday
night, bringing cooler and drier conditions of the weekend.
Strong northerly winds behind the front will lead to hazardous
marine conditions, with gale conditions possible.
- Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible Saturday as
gusty northeasterly winds combine with min RH values in the
upper 20s and low 30s across the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Friday night)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
No changes to ongoing conditions today into Fri. But the cold
front that is moving our way will begin to enter the area by noon
Fri or shortly thereafter. Northerly winds will already be here
before the front, so the only way to find it will be thermal and
moisture gradient, and if you look at any model, that is easy to
see. Winds and cooler temps will flood over the area as it moves
through, but as usual for October, there won't be much in the way
of sh/ts. The one thing that will occur will be at least a cloud
line along the frontal axis and there is a very small possibility
of one or two showers along this cloud line that won't amount to
much. The high behind the front will move in over the top of it
bridging itself with the high to the east of the front causing
strong stability and quickly lowering chances of getting any rain
with this system.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Saturday through Monday, high pressure will build over the area.
Looking at the models, little to no rainfall is expected as a
result. Temperatures will be gradually warming each day of the long
term forecast. Highs will be in the mid 70s Saturday and then climb
to the mid 80s by Monday afternoon. Conditions should feel more
pleasant overall.
Tuesday and Wednesday, some low rain chances return, but high
pressure remains. Some popup showers will be possible during the
afternoon hours both of these days, mainly south of I-10/12. Some
lightning may occur as well, but the storms should be pretty
suppressed overall. Temperatures will continue to be warmer than
average with highs in the mid 80s. MSW
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Most terminals will fall into IFR and LIFR again this
morning around sunrise and should slowly move back into VFR by mid
to late morning. Cloud cover and winds may be able to keep FG from
occurring tonight into Fri morning, but MVFR cigs/vis can't be ruled
out.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
High pressure will keep winds relatively calm through today. A
strong cold front will move through late Friday and Friday night,
bringing strong northerly winds and rapidly building seas. Small
craft Advisory conditions are likely through the weekend, with gale
conditions possible across portions of the offshore waters late
Friday into Saturday. Winds will gradually turn easterly Sunday but
remain elevated into early next week.
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ529-531.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT Thursday for MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ531.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 15, 12:34 AM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610150534-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
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