LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 1:30 PM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
910
FXUS64 KLIX 141830
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
130 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 130 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through
Friday, with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. Areas of fog,
potentially dense at times, will be possible again Thursday
morning.
- A strong cold front will move through late Friday and Friday
night, bringing much cooler and drier conditions of the weekend.
Strong northerly winds behind the front will lead to hazardous
marine conditions, with gale conditions possible.
- Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible Saturday as
gusty northeasterly winds combine with min RH values in the
upper 20s and low 30s across the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
The main focus in the short term will be the unseasonably warm and
dry conditions through Friday before a fairly strong cold front
brings our first real taste of fall this weekend. In the meantime,
upper-level ridging will continue to influence the area and keep
most of the precipitation away.
Starting with today, the fog that developed overnight has
essentially all lifted this afternoon as daytime heating broke
down the shallow inversion at the surface. With plenty of sunshine
and the continued influence of the ridge, temperatures will once
again climb into the upper 80s and low 90s across much of the
area. One thing to note is the rather dry air that had been
sitting atop the shallow moist layer this morning. As the
boundary-layer mixing get going this afternoon, some of that drier
air should be able to mix down to the surface and lower dew
points. Therefore, dew points were bumped down slightly from the
NBM this afternoon to account for the expected mixing. This will
bring min RH values into the 30s across much of the area, with
some locations potentially getting lower. Thankfully, winds will
remain light enough to limit the overall fire weather concerns
despite the dry conditions.
Tonight into Thursday morning, fog becomes another concern as the
shallow low-level moisture remains in place. The main question
will be how efficiently the boundary layer can cool and whether
winds remain light enough for fog to be dense. There will be a
very dry layer above the inversion, so even a slight increase in
mixing could prevent widespread dense fog from developing.
However, given the moisture near the surface and the expected
overnight cooling, at least some areas of fog seem likely again,
with locally dense fog possible. The greatest visibility
restrictions should be around sunrise before improving through the
morning.
Thursday will be very similar to today as the ridge remains in
control. Expect another day of mostly sunny skies with highs in
the upper 80s and low 90s across the area. The immediate coastal
areas should remain slightly cooler due to the marine influence.
Rain chances will remain near zero for most of the area thanks to
the continued subsidence and lack of sufficient moisture and
forcing.
Things start to change on Friday as a trough progressing across
the central CONUS begins breaking down the ridge overhead and
pushes a cold front toward the area. The main forecasting
challenge will be the exact timing of the front. If it manages to
move through earlier on Friday, particularly across southwest MS
and the northern Florida Parishes, afternoon temperatures could be
a few degrees cooler than currently forecast. However, if the
front holds off until later in the day, we could squeeze out one
more rather warm afternoon with highs in the upper 80s and low
90s. For now, confidence is higher in the overall frontal passage
than the exact timing across the CWA. Precipitation chances remain
quite limited with this front as sufficient deep-layer moisture
and forcing look to remain displaced from much of the inland area.
There could be some showers closer to the coast and offshore, but
widespread rainfall is not expected.
The cold front should make its way through the area late Friday
and Friday night, bringing a much drier and cooler airmass into
the region. Looking at the short-range guidance, they generally
agree in an increase in northerly flow across the northern Gulf
behind the front, although there is some differences in the
placement and magnitude of the strongest winds. The tightening
pressure gradient between the departing front and building surface
high will support gusty winds, especially areas south of Lake
Pontchartrain and over the marine areas. Because of this, winds
were bumped up slightly from the NBM behind the front to better
account expected gradient and post-frontal mixing. Small craft
Advisories will likely be needed, and some of the offshore waters
could approach gale conditions.
By Saturday, the cooler and drier air will have taken over the
entire area. Highs should only reach the low to mid 70s for most
locations, which will be roughly 10-15 degrees cooler than what we
have been experiencing. Another thing to note is how much the dew
points should drop behind this front. The strong northerly flow
will advect a much drier continental airmass into the area, and
daytime mixing should help bring some of that dry air to the
surface. Therefore, dew points were lowered from NBM again on
Saturday, especially along and north of I-10/12, to account for
the expected dry-air advection and mixing. This brings min RH
values down to the upper 20s and lower 30s for portions of
southwest MS and the Florida Parishes. Unlike today, however,
winds will also be elevated behind the front, so fire weather
concerns will need to be monitored closely, especially where the
lowest RH values overlap with the stronger winds. Otherwise,
expect a mostly sunny and much more comfortable Saturday across
the area.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
The previously mentioned cold front will have cleared the area by
Saturday night, leaving a much cooler and drier airmass in place.
Surface high pressure will continue building towards the region
while ridging aloft keeps conditions dry and stable through
Sunday.
The main forecast challenge Saturday night into Sunday morning
will be how efficiently temperatures can cool behind the front.
With the much drier airmass in place and mostly clear skies
expected, radiational cooling should become fairly efficient,
particularly across the interior areas and the typical drainage
areas. Although winds will be somewhat elevated closer to the
coast and lakes, they should begin relaxing farther inland as the
surface high builds closer to the area. Therefore, minimum
temperatures were bumped down slightly from the NBM Sunday morning
to account for the expected cooling. The coolest temperatures
should be across southwest MS, the northern Florida Parishes, and
the Pearl River drainage areas, while locations south of the lake
and along the immediate coast due to the marine influence and
slightly stronger winds. The biggest question will be how quickly
the pressure gradient relaxes overnight, as any persistent mixing
could keep temperatures from falling quite as much.
Sunday should be a fairly pleasant day as the drier airmass and
ample sunshine allow temperatures to rebound into the upper 70s
and low 80s. With the high pressure still influencing the area,
expect little to no precipitation for most inland locations. As we
head into Sunday night, the surface high begins shifting further
east, allowing more southeasterly flow to return and gradually
increasing low-level moisture. This should also bring minimum
temperatures back up closer to normal.
As we get into Monday and Tuesday, model guidance starts to
diverge on how the upper-level pattern evolves. Some guidance
favors a more amplified ridge remaining over the southeastern
CONUS, which would keep the area predominantly dry while
temperatures gradually warm back above normal. On the other hand,
some guidance is more progressive with the ridge and brings a
shortwave trough through the lower MS Valley. This would provide
better forcing and allow some precipitation chances to
return,mainly along and south of I-10 where the better moisture
should reside.
With these differences in the guidance, decided to stay with the
NBM for the remainder of the long term period. This keeps
temperatures gradually warming into the mid to upper 80s by
Tuesday, with low-end rain chances returning to portions of the
area. Confidence is lower than average for early next week given
the differences in the upper-level pattern, so we'll have to see
which solution the guidance trends towards in the coming days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals through this
evening with mostly clear skies and light winds. The main concern
will be another round of fog overnight into Thursday morning as
winds become light to calm and the surface cools. LIFR conditions
are expected across most terminals generally developing between
09-12z, with some terminals dropping to 1/4SM and ceilings around
100 feet. The biggest question will be how widespread the dense
fog becomes given the very dry air just above the inversion. Any
fog should dissipate between 13-15z as daytime heating allows the
boundary layer to mix out, with VFR conditions returning
thereafter.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
High pressure will keep winds relatively calm through Thursday. A
strong cold front will move through late Friday and Friday night,
bringing strong northerly winds and rapid building seas. Small craft
Advisory conditions are likely through the weekend, with gale
conditions possible across portions of the offshore waters on late
Friday into Saturday. Winds will gradually turn easterly Sunday but
remain elevated into early next week.
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT today for GMZ529-531-532-534.
MS...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT today for GMZ531-532-534.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 1:30 PM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610141830-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
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