The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Oct 16, 0:49z for portions of PAH
978
WUUS01 KWNS 160051
PTSDY1
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
VALID TIME 160100Z - 161200Z
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1
... TORNADO ...
0.02 38408680 38258767 38278791 38848718 39388642 40038587
40158552 40008522 39188531 38818543 38618580 38408680
&&
... HAIL ...
&&
... WIND ...
0.05 38598562 38398667 38208764 38298796 38838737 39458646
40108580 41358258 41368135 41018100 40718095 40358126
39828229 38898450 38598562
&&
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1
... CATEGORICAL ...
MRGL 38838737 39458646 40108580 41358258 41368135 41018100
40718095 40358126 39828229 38898450 38598562 38208764
38298796 38838737
TSTM 43637962 43847620 43557495 42937447 42357454 41487510
40007663 38027849 37167951 36808117 37498279 37948394
37718556 36299046 35779161 34479403 33769466 32679506
31339480 30329397 29929244 29369042 28838859 99999999
30210542 32130131 33989780 35779506 40339005 42758535
43288181 99999999 27529651 28609662 29179682 29639757
29789850 29599939 28909997 27840044 99999999 27958342
28058266 27068171 27008105 27258017 28057959
&&
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 S HUF 20 SSW IND 25 WSW MIE 35 N MFD 30 N CAK 25 SW YNG 30 ESE
CAK 40 SSE CAK 25 WSW ZZV 15 SSW LUK 30 NNE SDF 15 NNW EVV 30 NW
EVV 45 S HUF
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW BUF 15 SW ART
35 NE UCA 35 WNW ALB 45 NNE MSV 20 SW MSV 20 SE CXY 10 SSW CHO 20
SW LYH 35 S BLF 35 E JKL 35 E LEX 35 SSE SDF 35 S POF 0 - BVX 35
NE DEQ 25 SW DEQ 30 NW GGG 10 NNW LFK 25 N BPT 20 WNW 7R4 20 SE
HUM 60 SE BVE ...CONT... 85 W MRF 15 ESE BGS 40 E SPS 20 ENE MKO
30 SW PIA 10 SE GRR 70 NE MTC ...CONT... 65 ESE CRP 25 SE VCT 25
NNE VCT 30 ESE BAZ 15 N SAT 20 NW HDO 55 NW COT 65 WNW LRD
...CONT... 45 W PIE 10 N PIE 35 NNE FMY 50 SSE AGR 30 SSE VRB 60
ENE VRB
Source: The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Oct 16, 0:49z for portions of PAH (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2026/day1otlk_20261016_0100.html)
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