LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 5:57 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...
772
FXUS64 KLIX 141057
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
557 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 540 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
- Near record high temperatures are expected through Friday and
not much precipitation is expected through the weekend.
- Morning fog will be possible again tonight into Thursday
morning.
- A cold frontal passage on Friday will bring cooler weather to
the area for the weekend along with potentially hazardous
marine conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 1109 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Fog is the main theme for the next few days until a cold front
moves through late Friday. The fog type is a conglomerate of
radiative and advective. The moisture is moving in during the
evening and overnight hours but would not be able to condense
without the extreme dry layer at the inversion level just above
the sfc. So, anything that falls out of tolerance for radiation
fog, will also keep it from becoming so dense, although there will
still be some patchy fog around. The cold front moves through late
Friday, so that would be a non-contributor for dense fog once it
passes. There is not a lot of shower activity expected either as
the ridge is pinched ahead of the front and the high behind the
front bridges the actual front as well. Temps will fall about 10F
behind the front from Fri to Sat for highs and lows. This will be
a very comfortable feel as highs drop from the upper 80s to the
low to mid 70s and lows from the mid 60s to the mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1109 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Model agreement is good through Sunday with all of the guidance
indicating the continued presence of a deep layer ridge axis over
the region leading dry and stable condiitons. Temperatures will
remain slightly cooler than average as light northeasterly flow
persists. Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 50s for
locations north and west of Lake Pontchartrain and the lower 60s
south of the lake and along the Louisiana coast. Highs will
recover nicely on Sunday due to the dry airmass and ample solar
insolation anticipated with readings rising a good 30 degrees into
the upper 70s and lower 80s. Sunday night will some modification
of the airmass as winds turn more southeasterly and dewpoints
begin to climb. Overnight lows will be near average in the upper
50s and lower 60s inland the mid to upper 60s along the Louisiana
coast.
As we move into next Monday and Tuesday, significant differences in
the models begin to arise. The ECMWF maintains a more amplified
upper level pattern that results in the ridge axis remaining firmly
entrenched across the region. The end result of this solution would
be a continuation of the dry weather, and also a gradual increase in
temperatures back above normal as southeasterly onshore flow
persists and warm air from the Gulf advects into the area.
Conversely, the GFS has a much more progressive pattern develop
early next week resulting in weaker ridging that shifts more toward
Florida and a fast moving shortwave trough that slides through the
Lower Mississippi Valley. This solution would present a more
unsettled pattern with better rain chances accompanying the broad
area of increased forcing associated with the upper level trough.
Given the large disparities, the NBM solution was used for the
extended period. This results in warming temperatures back into the
mid to upper 80s by Tuesday and lows rising back into the 60s
forecast area wide, and the introduction of low end chance PoP of
around 30 percent for portions of the CWA mainly along and south of
I-10. With the large differences in place between the models,
overall forecast confidence for early next week is signiifantly
lower than average.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Most terminals are in IFR and LIFR this morning and should slowly
move back into VFR by mid to late morning. Thu morning could see
this same process occur with vis and cig restrictions via FG.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1109 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Winds and seas remain rather benign across our local waters. Winds
of 5 to 10 knots and seas of 1 to 2 feet can be expected through
much of this week as high pressure builds into the region. Toward
the end of the week a strong cold front will move into the region
increasing winds and seas with likely Small Craft Advisories or
perhaps even Gale conditions this weekend.
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LAZ034>037-
039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.
GM...None.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MSZ068>071-
077-083>088.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 5:57 AM CDT ...New AVIATION... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610141057-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
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