PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 15, 1:34 PM CDT
173
FXUS63 KPAH 151834
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
134 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms this afternoon
mainly for areas in the vicinity of and north of I-64. The
main threats would be damaging winds and possibly an isolated
tornado.
- Cooler conditions are expected Friday through the weekend
behind the cold front. Friday will also be breezy with
northwest winds gusting up to 30 mph at times.
- Saturday night has a pretty good potential for a first frost
across most of the CWA with overnight lows in the 30s.
- Sunday kicks off a warming trend with highs returning back to
around or slightly above normal by mid week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
A warm front will continue to slowly lift north this afternoon as
its parent sfc low moves northeast through northern MO and its
attendant cold front approaches from the west. Shower and storms are
expected to begin to redevelop over northwestern portions of the
area over the next few hours. SPC upgraded to a Slight Risk (level 2
of 5) over our northern most counties in southern IL and southwest
IN for this afternoon. This is based primarily on the potential for
destabilization due to daytime heating over the next few hours, and
excessively high PWATs that are greater than 2" causing the
potential for damaging winds. The main threats this afternoon would
be damaging winds and the possibility of an isolated tornado.
Looking into model soundings there could be a potential for a few
low-topped supercells or "spinny showers" which could result in the
possibility of a "sneaky" tornado or two. Will need to keep a close
eye on the evolving situation this afternoon. The severe threat
exists mainly till sunset as conditions wane quickly after that,
however showers may continue for several more hours.
A cold front then moves through the area tonight and brings us a big
cool down for tomorrow and Saturday. Highs will be 25-30 degrees
cooler tomorrow as they struggle to reach 60 degrees, and will hover
right around 60 on Saturday. Winds will be breezy out of the
northwest tomorrow with gusts to around 30 mph at times. Saturday
night shows a pretty good potential for a first frost across a
majority of the CWA with overnight lows in the 30s. Temperatures
then begin to moderate Sunday with sfc high pressure to the
northeast and southerly return flow. Expect a gradual warming trend
through the week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Lower cloud heights still exist for the northern sites, but
should increase briefly to VFR in the next few hours at EVV and
OWB. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop this
afternoon and evening ahead of the cold front with highest
chances at the northern sites. Winds will pick up (6-12kt)
shortly out of the S/SW and will shift to be out of the W/NW as
the cold front moves through the forecast area. Stronger gusts
are expected to increase in the latter half of the TAF period up
to 20-25 kts.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...AZ
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 15, 1:34 PM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610151834-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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