LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 13, 12:10 AM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
785
FXUS64 KLIX 130510
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1210 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1101 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
- Near record high temperatures are expected for much of the week
with little or no precipitation.
- A cold frontal passage on Friday will bring cooler weather to
the area for next weekend along with potentially hazardous
marine conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Large stacked upper high sitting directly over south TX today will
start to slowly meander around the NW gulf coast through Friday.
This will keep the very nice October dry weather going. Cool
nights will be replaced with warm days each day, and temps will
climb to near records each day. This stacked high will be
responsible for the above average warmth. The good thing is the
temps can't get out of control like they could in August as zenith
angles are much lower now. But temps can still get warm as record
highs are around 90F at all locations for this week. Today shows
the best chance of gettin to or breaking one or two of these
records as it is the lowest high record through the week, like BTR
could reach 93F today and the old record is 91F which was
originally set in 1904 and last tied in 2017.
The only real weather issue will be fog, which will be radiative,
so any variable out of tolerance will dissipate it. October fog
normally comes in layers or is low to the ground. Most of it can
be found where a moisture source is, like a marsh or river valley
or wooded area. It is rare for this to envelope heat islands like
large cities and major roadways. This is mainly due to there not
being enough moisture to condense and since it will be dry and
very little moisture advection for the next few days, this fog
should remain layered and outside cities. This is not marine fog,
and marine waters are way too warm to promote or even maintain it.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Monday)
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
A longwave trough axis and attendant cold front will sweep through
the region Friday night. This front will not bring any appreciable
rain to the area due to a lack of return flow in advance of the
system. This is noted quite well by the below average PWATS of
around 1.1 inches expected Friday night. At most, some passing
cloud cover will accompany the front as it moves through. A decent
shot of cooler air will advect in behind the front on Saturday and
this cooler airmass will remain in place through Sunday.
Temperatures will be near average Friday night, but will be cooler
than average for the weekend. Highs will only warm into the upper
70s and lower 80s on Saturday and Sunday and lows Saturday night
will dip into the mid to upper 50s inland the lower 60s south of the
tidal lakes and along the Louisiana coast. By Monday, the high over
the area will begin to shift to the east. Winds will turn onshore
and low level moisture will begin to feed into the area. However,
the mid-levels will remain very dry and PWATS will still be below
average. As a result, only some fair weather cumulus development is
expected on Monday as temperatures warm back into the low to mid
80s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Most terminals will fall into IFR briefly around sunrise today
and again Wed morning with vis restrictions the main cause. IFR
cigs will also accompany the low vis during the same time frame.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Winds and seas remain rather benign across our local waters. Winds
of 5 to 10 knots and seas of 1 to 2 feet can be expected through
much of this week as high pressure builds into the region. Toward
the end of the week a strong cold front will move into the region
increasing winds and seas with likely small craft advisories
this weekend.
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 13, 12:10 AM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610130510-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
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