Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1494 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
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AWUS01 KWNH 141847
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PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-150030-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1494
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
246 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Areas affected...upper OH Valley into the central Appalachians
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 141845Z - 150030Z
SUMMARY...Areas of flash flooding will be possible across the
upper OH Valley into the central Appalachians through 01Z. Hourly
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected with 6-hr totals of 2 to 4
inches possible (isolated higher rates/totals).
DISCUSSION...18Z visible satellite and radar imagery showed an MCV
over southeastern IN (between I-70 and I-74), tracking toward the
east, preceded by an axis of thunderstorms stretching from the
southern IN/OH border into northern KY. Farther east, a narrow
west-east axis of showers and thunderstorms was located along I-70
in eastern OH along a pre-frontal convergence axis. The
environment downstream of the eastward advancing MCV showed mostly
clear skies with a few pockets of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE via the 18Z
SPC mesoanalysis. Precipitable water values were high along the
OH/WV border with 1.6 to 1.7 inches, but increased to near 2
inches over southeastern IN, near the MCV.
Continued heating and moisture advection within the moist
environment downstream of the MCV should allow for further
increases in instability with 500 to 1000+ J/kg becoming more
widespread across the upper OH Valley by 21Z via the 17Z RAP.
Steering flow is generally unidirectional from the west throughout
the region and while 850-300 mb layer winds were a progressive
30-40 kt, there will be some potential for cells to train with any
west-east oriented development that occurs ahead of the MCV. There
will also be some potential for west-east training over portions
of eastern KY along the southwestern flank of the MCV as it tracks
into WV late this afternoon into the early evening. A lack of
higher instability and mostly progressive storm motions are
limiting factors for flash flooding, but any areas of training
that develop will allow for hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches.
These values alone would exceed 1-hr FFG values along the OH River
into much of WV. Any stronger convection that is able to train or
repeat for over an hour could allow for some 2 to 4 inch totals
through 00Z.
Otto
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...JKL...LMK...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
RNK...
ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 40388086 40147945 39717925 38787960 37728107
37478291 37418582 37748649 38038652 38498607
39008529 39648427 39978341 40358213
Source: Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1494 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE (https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=1494&yr=2026)
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