IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 6:10 PM EDT
480
FXUS63 KIND 142210
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
610 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Multiple rounds of showers tonight through Friday.
- Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late Thursday
afternoon and evening with damaging winds and heavy rain the
primary threats.
- Sharply colder conditions arrive Friday, accompanied by northwest
wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph.
- Widespread frost is likely late Saturday night into early Sunday
morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Rest of this Afternoon and Tonight....
In the wake of the MCV organized convection now moving through parts
of KY/OH, remnant showers will continue through late afternoon
before stronger downward vertical motion ends precip chances for all
but the far south by this evening. Copious mid-high clouds
associated with convection over the southern Plains will keep any
threat for fog development out of the question overnight.
The remnant of the next in a chain of MCV's looks to move into the
MS valley after 06Z, with some potential increase in light precip
over the far western and southern portions of central Indiana
towards 12Z. Meanwhile, surface analysis shows a backdoor cold front
moving steadily southward through northern Indiana with temps
falling at FWA recently. Have cut temps 1-2 cats late this afternoon
and overnight along and north of I-70 to account for faster and
further southward movement of the front compared to recent guidance.
Thursday...
The back door frontal boundary should be draped near and possibly
just south of I-70 by 12Z Thursday where it is expected to stall.
Aforementioned next MCV is likely to move into central Indiana
during the morning hours. Instability ahead of this feature looks
meager. But increasing isentropic lift north-nw of the frontal
boundary should support scattered showers with isolated
thunderstorms with mucape up to 1000 J/KG. Activity will push
across much of central Indiana during the mid-late morning into
early afternoon. Scattered surface based TS possible by mid-late
afternoon along and south of the slowly advancing warm front.
Complications to the forecast include any precip induced cold pool
which may reinforce the frontal boundary location. This creates
uncertainty regarding timing and location of surface based
thunderstorms development and attendant severe weather threat. For
now will keep all of central Indiana in the wording for marginal
risk of severe weather in line with the most recent SWODY2.
Thursday night and Friday...
The focus for convection should diminish by midnight as the 3rd an
final MCV moves east of central Indiana. However, the cold frontal
boundary associated with southward moving shortwave through the
western Great Lakes will support renewed shower development towards
12Z Friday. In the wake of the frontal boundary, strong CAA will
lead to gusty winds up to 30 mph with temps steady to slowing
falling during the afternoon. Passage of the shortwave trough axis
and increasing CAA aloft will support steeper lapse rates and
potential for scattered showers in NE Zones during the afternoon,
with the remainder of central Indiana seeing mostly light to
moderate drizzle "showers". Temperatures are likely to be 35 degrees
colder Friday afternoon than they were Tuesday afternoon and
combined with the strong winds, Fall will certainly feel like it has
arrived!
Friday Night through Wednesday...
Clouds and a few light showers may linger through Friday evening as
the upper wave axis shifts through the region. Skies will clear late
Friday night into Saturday morning with winds relaxing as a large
1030-1035mb surface high moves into the Ohio Valley. The high will
center over the region Saturday night before shifting to the East
Coast Sunday and allowing for return southerly flow to commence
Sunday into early next week. Upper ridging will reestablish for the
first half of next week with temperatures returning to above normal
levels. Deep subsidence supports an extended period of mainly clear
skies Saturday into early next week.
Low level thermals support the coolest daytime temperatures in the
mid and upper 50s Saturday before recovery back into the low and mid
70s for the first half of next week. While a lack of boundary layer
decoupling and lingering cloud coverage will likely limit frost
accrual to sheltered locales Friday night...confidence remains high
in a widespread frost for much of the area on Saturday night as lows
fall into the 30s. Subfreezing temperatures possible for some of our
normal cool spots as well Saturday night. Frost/Freeze headlines are
expected to be needed Saturday night. Lows will return to the upper
40s and early 50s by midweek.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 610 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026
Impacts:
- MVFR to IFR Cigs are expected for much of this TAF period.
Discussion:
Water vapor imagery continues to show a tropical plume of moisture
streaming across Indiana. A warm front at the surface has slipped
south of the TAF sites, allowing winds to become more northwesterly.
A big change in airmass is not expected to occur during this TAF
period.
Most TAF sites will remain on the north side of the lingering
frontal boundary, resulting in plentiful low clouds across the TAF
brief IFR conditions will be possible overnight near diurnal lows.
On Thursday, Low pressure will sweep across northern Illinois and
push toward Michigan. This will place Central Indiana within the
warm sector during the afternoon as a cold front sweeps across
Central Indiana. HRRR suggests SCT shra development within the warm
sector as the forcing passes. Confidence for precise timing is low.
Thus have used VCSH mentions through the afternoon. Forecast
soundings and time heights show plentiful lower level moisture
through the period, thus MVFR conditions will expected.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...Puma
DISCUSSION...Crosbie/Ryan
Source: IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 6:10 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610142210-KIND-FXUS63-AFDIND)
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