ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 13, 3:33 AM EDT
109
FXUS61 KILN 130733
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
333 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Changes to temperatures Wednesday through Friday. Increased wind
gusts some today and Friday. Increased precipitation amounts across
the south for Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Near record temperatures today.
2) More active weather is expected from Wednesday through Friday,
which will bring the potential for severe weather, heavy rainfall,
and gusty winds.
3) Cooler weather and frost possible this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1)
Well above normal temperatures are expected today with highs in the
80s. These values are near record values for the day. The record
value for today at CVG is 88 set in 1928, CMH is 85 set in 1969, and
DAY is 86 set in 1897 and 1975. The current forecast high
temperatures are CVG 86, CMH 85, and DAY 86.
Went with the NBM dry forecast for the daytime hours today given dry
low level air, however cannot rule out a few sprinkles.
Key Message 2)
An active weather pattern will be in place for Wednesday through
Friday. First there will be the potential for an isolated severe
weather Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Damaging winds
and hail will be the primary threats and generally south of
Interstate 70.
The severe threat will transition into more of a heavy rain threat
into Wednesday night. With the multiple rounds of rain from Wednesday
during the day to Wednesday night, there will be some flooding
concerns. There is a convergent signal for an axis of west to east
storms with a focus generally a little north of the Ohio River to a
little south of the Ohio River. There is some uncertainty in where
this axis of heavier rainfall will be possible.
Additional showers and storms will move into the area later on
Thursday and into Friday in advance and with a cold front. There is
an additional severe threat with damaging winds the primary threat
Thursday into Thursday night. Gusty winds will be present for Friday
with wind gusts likely in excess of 30mph and a few gusts upwards of
40 mph possible.
For temperatures during this time period, decreased temperatures
slightly north of Interstate 70 on Wednesday due to earlier timing of
clouds and storms there. On Thursday again decreased temperatures,
primarily north of the Ohio River. Updated temperatures Thursday
night and Friday to account for a sharper temperature trace with the
strong system moving through with temperatures falling during the
day on Friday.
Key Message 3)
After the cold front passes on Friday, cooler air will work in for
the weekend. There is still some model variation on how cold
overnight lows will be, however there will be the potential for
frost.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
River valley fog will be present overnight at KLUK, otherwise expect
VFR conditions. Winds will pick up during the day with some wind
gusts around 20 to 25 knots during the afternoon to early evening
hours. Most of the precipitation will hold off until after the end of
the TAF period.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday and again on
Thursday. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible from Wednesday
through Friday. Gusty winds are possible on Friday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 13, 3:33 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610130733-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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