ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 12, 1:47 AM EDT
945
FXUS61 KILN 120547
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
147 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Fog will reduce visibilities tonight into Monday morning.
2) More active weather is expected from Wednesday through the rest of
the week, with fluctuating temperatures and precipitation chances.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1)
As the tropical remnants move away from the area, rain chances are
coming to an end -- with only some chances in southern Ohio and
northeast Kentucky through evening. However, with quite a bit of low
level moisture, fog will become likely overnight. Clearing skies from
west-to-east will favor fog development near and west of the
Interstate 75 corridor, but anywhere that clears out (and especially
locations with light or calm winds) will have the potential for fog
development. Not out of the question that some dense fog will be
possible, so an advisory could be needed at some point after fog
development begins and the locations can be determined. This will be
more likely for the western half of the ILN CWA, but at least some
reduction in visibility appears likely for much of the forecast area.
Key Message 2)
High pressure will bring dry conditions to the Ohio Valley on Monday,
and also likely on Tuesday as well -- though a weak disturbance will
move through the Great Lakes, it will probably stay just north of the
ILN forecast area.
A more active weather pattern is expected to develop by Wednesday, as
a surface front sets up west-to-east somewhere across the region, and
moisture begins flowing into the Ohio Valley around a mid-level ridge
over the southeastern states. This setup will likely provide chances
for rain (and storms) on occasion from early Wednesday through
Friday, with precipitation also occurring with a cold front moving
through the region some time on Friday. No obvious signs for
hazardous weather with thunderstorms from Wednesday through Friday as
of now.
Temperatures will likely peak out on Tuesday, with highs in the mid
80s, before gradually falling the next couple days. A more
significant drop in temperatures is expected behind the cold front on
Friday, leading to temperatures below normal over the weekend. Lows
may even get into the 30s on Sunday morning, so some frost potential
may exist.
Finally, some gusty winds may be possible Friday behind the cold
front -- still quite a ways out in the forecast, but something to
keep an eye on as it gets closer.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR to IFR cigs are currently around KDAY, KILN, KCMH, and KLCK.
Most of these clouds have moved out of KCVG and KLUK which has
allowed for vsbys to drop. Expect cloud cover to continue to push
east and as it does vsbys will continue to drop.
Going into the day on Monday, conditions will gradually return to VFR
during the morning daytime hours. VFR conditions are then expected
for the remainder of the TAF period with just some mid and high
clouds.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon into the early
evening hours MVFR conditions are possible at times Wednesday
through Friday. Gusty winds are expected on Friday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for KYZ089>098.
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for INZ050-058-059-
066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hatzos
AVIATION...08
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 12, 1:47 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610120547-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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