CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 11, 7:58 PM EDT
275
FXUS61 KCLE 112358
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
758 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Drizzle and mist is expected to linger longer this evening into
tonight. Record high temperatures are looking increasingly likely
Tuesday.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The remnants of Isaias will move away this evening, but drizzle
and mist will linger through the first half of the night, along with
areas of fog.
2) Record high temperatures are likely Tuesday ahead of a cold front
that will bring showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into
Wednesday.
3) Briefly drier Wednesday night into Thursday before a strong cold
front brings rain, gusty winds, and the coldest air of the season
Friday into Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The remnant low of Isaias is centered over West
Virginia this afternoon, while a weak mid/upper trough axis that has
been helping to steer the remnants is centered over the southern
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. As the trough axis progresses east
tonight, the remnant low will be transported east into the Mid
Atlantic region before exiting offshore Monday morning.
The bulk of the rain has shifted into central PA, but abundant low-
level moisture and some PVA from the mid/upper trough overhead is
keeping bands of light showers and drizzle from north central Ohio
through NE Ohio and NW PA. This light shower activity and drizzle
will gradually pivot east this evening and tonight, but given the
amount of low-level moisture lingering beneath the trough axis, feel
that drizzle will be stubborn to end even after the actual rain
showers end. Trended the forecast toward longer periods of drizzle
and mist gradually ending from west to east through 06Z tonight, but
low clouds and patchy fog are likely all night. Drying of the
boundary layer in the wake of the trough should gradually break up
the low clouds Monday morning, and expect increasing sunshine by
afternoon as mid/upper ridging expands over the central and eastern
CONUS and surface high pressure strengthens across the Appalachians
and SE CONUS in response to deep mid/upper troughing progressing
further into the western CONUS. This will set up increasing warm air
advection to boost highs well above normal Monday afternoon, with
upper 70s/low 80s in NW Ohio and low/mid 70s in NE Ohio and NW PA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
The warmth that starts Monday afternoon will really
peak Tuesday as the mid/upper ridge further amplifies over the
eastern CONUS ahead of the western trough evolving into a closed low
near the Four Corners region. Strengthening warm/moist advection and
isentropic ascent combined with a mid/upper shortwave and surface
low crossing the central Great Lakes could drive a few showers north
of a retreating warm front Monday night into early Tuesday morning.
These could brush the lakeshore counties of northern Ohio and NW PA,
but the bulk of any rain should be over Lake Erie and southern
Ontario. Impressive warmth is likely in the warm sector Tuesday
afternoon, with probabilities increasing for record highs in parts
of the region as temperatures reach the mid 80s in NW and north
central Ohio and upper 70s/low 80s in NE Ohio and NW PA. The best
chance to exceed the records will be at KTOL and KCLE. See climate
section for details.
The ridge will start to flatten Tuesday evening and night as a
northern stream mid/upper trough drops across the central and
eastern Great Lakes. This will push a cold front slowly south into
the area Tuesday night, but the front will become quasi-stationary
late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the combination of
strong ridging to the south and energy emanating out of the
Four Corners closed low riding the boundary holds it up. A few
showers and thunderstorms could occur late Tuesday afternoon and
evening in NE Ohio and NW PA as forcing increases ahead of the
approaching shortwave and 110+ knot jet, but the bulk of the
rain will occur late Tuesday night into Wednesday as the
boundary gradually sags south and the energy from the west rides
along it. The sagging front and precip will keep temperatures
cooler Wednesday, with highs in the upper 60s/low 70s north and
low/mid 70s south.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
The front will briefly push into the Ohio Valley
Wednesday night and early Thursday as Canadian high pressure ridges
down from the Upper Great Lakes leading to seasonably cool and drier
conditions. However, the front will quickly lift back north as a
warm front late Thursday and Thursday night ahead of a potentially
significant storm system. The old Four Corners cut off low will
attempt to phase with a strong northern stream mid/upper trough
diving into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Thursday night and
Friday, resulting in a rapidly deepening surface low crossing the
Lower Great Lakes Friday and strong cold frontal passage. There
remains uncertainty on the strength of this system and resultant
push of cold air in its wake due to differences in how much the
northern stream trough can phase with the old cut off low, but
ensemble guidance and general pattern recognition suggests at least
a seasonably strong Fall storm system and the coldest air of the
season so far. Widespread rain is likely Friday followed by falling
temperatures late Friday into Saturday and lingering lake effect
showers. Depending on the strength of this system, wind headlines
are certainly possible. Slow moderation by Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
The main impact/forecast challenge is primarily lingering low
ceilings tonight and Monday morning, along with some patchy mist
or drizzle that may cause brief vis restrictions. Ceilings have
been bouncing some but largely remain in the IFR to low MVFR
range. Do want to caution that there will likely be some
continued "bouncing" of conditions beyond what can be depicted
within the TAFs, but some general trends are expected. Out west
at TOL/FDY, ceilings have climbed to MVFR and should hold there
in the near term. The potential exists for a brief period of
partial overnight clearing, though guidance suggests any brief
partial clearing may quickly give way to a few more hours of IFR
conditions early Monday. Farther east (including all TAF sites
from CLE-MFD east) am generally expecting ceilings to hold
steady or lower a bit more through early Monday, before
improvement to VFR from west to east late Monday morning/early
afternoon. A subtle trough axis currently stretches from Lake
Erie into North Central OH and will pivot east-southeast
overnight through most locations from CLE-MFD points east. This
trough may be enough of a feature to bring some passing
sprinkles with lower ceilings and visibility, which was
included all TAF sites from CLE-MFD points east.
Winds generally are out of a north to northeast direction this
evening, but will come around to the northwest tonight and then
more west-southwest Monday. Winds tonight will generally be
under 7 knots, increasing modestly to 6-12kt Monday afternoon.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible Tuesday and Wednesday in showers/
thunderstorms associated with a cold front.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds on Lake Erie will continue to veer NE this evening then NW
tonight while decreasing to under 5 knots as the remnants of
Isaias pull away. SW winds will then increase to 10-15 knots by
late Monday as a low pressure system crosses the central Great
Lakes and warm front lifts across the lake. These SW winds will
further increase to 15-20 knots Monday night and Tuesday until
diminishing behind a cold front Tuesday night and shifting NW.
Light winds early Wednesday will gradually give way to stronger
N winds of 10-15 knots Wednesday afternoon, turning NE at 15-20
knots Wednesday night and Thursday as high pressure builds
across the Upper Great Lakes.
After a brief lull in winds, a strong storm system looks to
impact the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday. Gales are possible
with this system, but there remains uncertainty on the exact
track and strength which will be monitored in the coming days.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Temperatures are forecast to be near record high values across
Northwest and North Central Ohio on Tuesday. Records for October 13
are listed below for the official climate locations.
Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie
10-13 83(1975) 84(1969) 82(1969) 82(1969) 83(1969) 83(1983)
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Garuckas
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Garuckas
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 11, 7:58 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610112358-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!