PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 11, 12:23 PM CDT
759
FXUS63 KPAH 111723
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1223 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- After some areas of early morning drizzle across the eastern
portions of our area, clouds will be decreasing from west to
east, with sunny conditions across the entire region by this
afternoon.
- A quick return to well above normal temperatures can be
expected today through Tuesday, with near record to record
highs Monday and Tuesday.
- Chances of showers and some thunderstorms arrive late Tuesday
night into Wednesday, with 40-70% chances by Wednesday
afternoon, continuing into Thursday. Chances decrease to
20-30% Thursday night, ending on Friday.
- Next weekend will start off with well below normal temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026
As the remnants of Isaias continue on a northeast trajectory,
we will see any lingering drizzle in our eastern counties come
to an end early this morning and clearing skies through the
day. With full sunshine this afternoon, high temperatures will
climb right back up to well above normal readings from the upper
70s east to the middle 80s to around 90 degrees west. Mostly
sunny to sunny skies will continue into Monday and Tuesday,
along with breezy southwest winds. This will result in near
record to record highs from around 90 degrees to the middle
90s.
On Tuesday, models continue to show a frontal boundary sinking south
toward our region, moving into the PAH forecast area (fa) Wednesday.
The model blend brings 20-30% chances of showers and thunderstorms
into north and northwest portions of the PAH fa late Tuesday night,
with chances increasing and spreading southeast across our
entire area Wednesday. 30-70% chances, best chances north and
west, persist from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as the
frontal boundary lingers across the middle Mississippi and lower
Ohio valleys. The boundary finally moves on through Thursday
night into Friday, with chances of showers and a few storms
dwindling to 20-30% Thursday night, and just 20% chances of some
showers lingering on Friday.
Clouds and precipitation will bring down temperatures a little
Wednesday and Thursday, but readings will remain well above
normal. Behind the frontal boundary Friday temperatures will
come down to seasonable values. By Saturday, under the
influence of northwest winds, temperatures could be as much as
10 degrees below normal.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026
Low clouds continue to move off to the east this afternoon and
should clear the area in a few hours. After that, VFR conditions
are expected through the end of the period. Some high cirrus
will move through overnight and then clear out tomorrow morning.
Winds will go very light to calm overnight and will pick up
tomorrow out of the southwest at around 7-10 kts.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...HICKFORD
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 11, 12:23 PM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610111723-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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