LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 11, 3:25 PM EDT
556
FXUS63 KLMK 111925
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
325 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
* The remnants of Isaias departs off to our east this evening,
with rainfall chances decreasing from west to east over the coming
hours.
* As skies clear out this evening, chances for the development of
dense fog will increase tonight (40-60%) for areas along and east
of I-65.
* Dry and warm weather will return Monday into Tuesday, with rain
chances returning by Wednesday and Thursday. Friday features a
cooling trend with temperatures that lasts into next weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026
The western edge of lower stratus from the remnants of Isaias is
slowly creeping towards the western portions of our area. Pockets of
light rain and drizzle are still ongoing, especially for places
along and east of I-65. Chances for precipitation will continue to
decrease from west to east as the afternoon progresses, with dry
conditions expected across the region by sunset this evening. Upper-
level ridging will build in over the Ohio Valley as the remnants of
Isaias departs off to the east, setting up a period of calm
conditions that will go into the early parts of the workweek. With
decreasing winds expected tonight, in addition to residual moisture
from this weekend's rain, chances (40-60%) for dense fog will
increase late tonight, especially for areas along and east of I-65.
Any fog that does develop will dissipate shortly after sunrise, with
mostly clear skies expected during the day on Monday.
As the upper ridge shifts eastward across the central and eastern
CONUS, southerly surface flow and warmer temperatures will return to
the region. Highs on Monday will be in the low to mid 80s,
increasing to the mid to upper 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday. A few
isolated places could reach 90, with LREF outputting 20-30% chances
for highs reaching 90 for western and central Kentucky. By Wednesday
morning, a frontal boundary pushes southward towards central Indiana
as the upper-level ridging pattern becomes less amplified. Chances
for showers and isolated storms will return as the front continues
to slowly move southward, becoming nearly stationary over the region
by Thursday. Chances for precip will continue into the latter parts
of the workweek before a shortwave trough swings through the Ohio
Valley/Great Lakes regions and helps push the front southward out
of the area by Friday.
Surface high pressure builds in behind the trough, setting up a
stretch of dry conditions for next weekend. Another thing to monitor
will the the considerable cool down in temperatures after this
features moves through. Decent cold air advection will help result
in colder than normal conditions both Saturday and Sunday, with
highs in the upper 50s/low 60s forecast. The main focus temperature-
wise will come during the overnight periods Friday and Saturday
night, with the potential for temperatures to drop below 40 both
nights. While chances are not as high for Saturday morning (15-25%
from latest LREF), chances increase considerably for Sunday morning
(50-70%) that also introduces the potential for our first frost of
the season (30-50% chance).
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026
Low MVFR and IFR ceilings/cigs continue across the terminals this
afternoon, with brief periods of LIFR continuing over LEX and RGA.
Conditions will slowly improve to higher-endMVFR/VFR and chances for
light rain/drizzle will subside later this afternoon into this
evening west to east as cloud cover slowly retreats from the region.
With reduced winds and residual low-level moisture from this
weekend's system, chances for fog will increase after 08z,
especially for LEX and RGA. Any fog that does develop will dissipate
shortly after sunrise, with VFR conditions prevailing through the
remainder of the TAF period.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BEN
AVIATION...BEN
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 11, 3:25 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610111925-KLMK-FXUS63-AFDLMK)
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