WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Oct 11, 7:18 AM CDT
041
AGUS74 KWCO 111227
AHDNWC
Area Hydrological Discussion #244 - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL
718 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026
POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Flash, urban, and small stream flooding
WHERE: Southern and Central Appalachians
WHEN: Through Sunday afternoon
FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS:
QPF: 1 - 2", locally higher (HRRR, HREF)
QPE: 2 - 4" (MRMS Past 24 hr)
Rainfall Rates: 1-1.25"/hr (WPC)
Soil Moisture: Greater than 65% (0 - 10 cm RSM, NASA SPoRT)
DISCUSSION:
Heavy rainfall associated with Post-Tropical Storm Isaias continues
to stream into the region with an additional 1 - 2" of rainfall
possible in already saturated conditions. Across western NC,
significant flash and small stream flooding is ongoing, however,
rainfall is expected to diminish through the morning while river
flooding may linger longer. Across the Central Appalachians including
WV, heavy rainfall has primed soils but recent stream responses have
been isolated. With more rain in the forecast and soils already wet,
additional flash and urban flooding will be possible through this
afternoon.
Recent runs of the HRRR forced National Water Model (NWM) Short Range
Forecast (SRF) continue to signal the potential for rapid-onset
flooding across portions of WV, northern VA, and western MD with the
highest probabilities across northern VA. The higher magnitude
responses have generally been isolated to scattered (SRF Maximum High
Flow Magnitude and Unit Discharge) suggesting that out of bank flows,
while isolated, may be possible. Given these factors, isolated flash
and urban flooding will be possible.
GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION: water.noaa.gov/operations/ahd
Additional National Water Center products are available at:
weather.gov/owp/operations
//Smith
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CTP...RLX...GSP...RNK...MRX...RAH...LWX
ATTN...RFC...ORN...RHA...TIR...ALR...WPC
Source: WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Oct 11, 7:18 AM CDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610111218-KWCO-AGUS74-AHDNWC)
---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!