IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 8, 7:29 PM EDT
755
FXUS63 KIWX 082329
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
729 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few sprinkles are possible toward Lake Michigan Friday.
- More widespread light rain is expected early Sunday,
especially east of I-69, associated with the remnants of
Isaias. No significant impacts are anticipated.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026
Remaining quiet across the Nation's midsection this afternoon with
mid-latitude flow focused across the far northern CONUS while a
subtropical ridge is noted over Florida and the Carolinas. In the
coming week, we'll see a variety of modest temperature swings with
increasing chances for rain.
This afternoon, relative humidity values have tumbled toward 35-45%
thanks to deep mixing from aloft. A few wind gusts near 20 to 25 mph
are sprouting up on surface observations. In light of the recent dry
spell, these ingredients amount to a nonzero risk of fire weather
conditions.
A weak warm front along with increasing 850-mb flow will be the
focus for isolated showers or sprinkles (20-30% chance) on Friday,
primarily over the greater South Bend and Michiana area. Cross
sections remain rather dry below 8,000 ft while the best low-level
forcing is across Illinois. Dry conditions will prevail toward and
east of the I-69 corridor. In the wake of the front, far southern
areas will once again make a run for 80 degrees.
Our primary rain chance this forecast period continues to be from
any remnants of Hurricane Isaias, yet not everyone sees rain. Rain
chances are greatest along and east of I-69 with rain amounts
generally less then 0.5" Saturday night through Sunday. Overall, no
significant impacts expected from Isaias. It will be very warm
Saturday (widespread low-80s) as a 582dm ridge builds over the
Midwest. Not quite as warm to follow Sunday with clouds and cyclonic
northerly flow in play.
A cold front is in the cards for the middle of next week, while the
CONUS becomes dominated by a deep, cold trough descending over the
northern Plains and a strong subtropical ridge to the southeast.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 727 PM EDT Thu Oct 8 2026
Surface high pressure slides eastward as the mid level trough north
of the area departs. Meanwhile, mid level moisture works into the
area in conjunction with a warm front arriving in IL from the
Central Plains. Given how dry we've been and the placement of the
moisture axis, getting rain will be difficult at FWA, but we do have
15 to 30 PoPs at SBN midday into the early evening Friday and 25%
chance 20-00z. RAP time-sections indicate moisture saturating down
to 850 mb by around 15z Friday, but plenty of dry air exists below
it. Expect impacts to be minimal so will leave it out of the TAFs
for now. Initially northwest winds become light overnight
emerging as easterly winds on Friday. Today's relatively breezy
winds quickly calm down this evening and stay below 10 kts
sustained with the passage of the high pressure center on
Friday.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Roller
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 8, 7:29 PM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610082329-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
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