BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 7, 2:53 AM EDT
646
FXUS61 KBOX 070653
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
253 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rain chances are increasing for the Sunday/Monday period.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly dry weather prevails this week with continued seasonable
temperatures after a very chilly start this morning.
- The holiday weekend favors dry weather for the first half, but
chances are increasing that remnants of a tropical system
bring rain to the region Sunday/Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Mostly dry weather prevails this week with continued
seasonable temperatures after a very chilly start this morning.
Very chilly temperatures out there as of 3AM with 32F in Orange, 35F
in Taunton, and 35F in Willimantic to name a few. This is the result
of high pressure overhead promoting efficient radiational cooling
with calm winds and clear skies. The exception is along the coast
and in urban centers where, for instance, Boston and Providence are
49F and 45F respectively. It will be a quick warm-up today as winds
back out of the SW advecting in warm air and moisture ahead of a
weak trough that swings through on Thursday. This trough will do a
few things. First, it will make for warmer temperatures. This goes
for afternoon highs thanks to a warmer airmass (925mb temps 5C
warmer than yesterday) as well as overnight lows (modest LLJ keeping
the boundary layer from decoupling). Resulting highs will reach into
the mid 60s today and the low 70s on Thursday before a trailing cold
front brings cooler weather Friday into the weekend. The second
impact of this trough will be increasing moisture going into
Thursday which will lead to higher dewpoints (humidity) and
increased cloudcover ahead of the cold front. Marginal moisture,
though, will mean showers are isolated at best.
KEY MESSAGE 2...The holiday weekend favors dry weather for the first
half, but chances are increasing that remnants of a tropical system
bring rain to the region Sunday/Monday.
High pressure solidly in control on Saturday will bring a beautiful,
seasonably cool day with plenty of sun. Attention then turns to the
latter half of the holiday weekend. Unfortunately the probability of
unsettled weather around Sunday/Monday has increased. We are
monitoring Tropical Depression Nine in the Gulf which will
eventually make its way north up the Mississippi Valley, potentially
interacting with a northern stream trough and being swept over the
northeast bringing wet weather sometime Sunday or Monday. Confidence
has increased in this outcome as probabilities of at least 0.01" of
rain have increased in both the EPS and GEFS ensembles. Certainly
nothing is set in stone at this point, but it is worth keeping an
eye on how the forecast evolves over the next several days if you
have outdoor plans.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06z TAF Update...High confidence.
VFR conditions through Thursday. Calm winds tonight then shift
to the SW Wed into Wed night with some 20-25 knot gusts expected
Wed afternoon. Gusty SW winds continue Thursday. Slight chance
SHRA.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday Night: VFR.
Friday: VFR. Breezy.
Friday Night through Saturday Night: VFR.
Sunday: VFR. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight through Thursday night...High confidence.
Winds shift to the SW Wed into Wed night. Some SW wind gusts of
20-25 knots expected Wed afternoon and night. Some potential to
approach small craft advisory level winds but things are too
marginal to issue a headline at this point.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.
Friday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for CTZ002>004.
MA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MAZ004>006-009-
011>013-017-018-020-021-026.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for MAZ002-003-008-
010.
RI...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for RIZ001-003-006.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...BW
Source: BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 7, 2:53 AM EDT (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202610070653-KBOX-FXUS61-AFDBOX)
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